IS IT TRUE? September 12, 2011

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600 Block of East Franklin Street

IS IT TRUE? September 12, 2011

IS IT TRUE that Evansville real estate professionals have been quoted as making the claims that the real estate market here has really not been adversely effected the way that other places have been?…that they go a step further to in stating that Evansville has really not seen any significant impacts to prices due to the widely publicized “housing bust”?…that most economists and investors are now of the opinion that there will not be a jobs recovery until the real estate markets in the USA stabilize from a price perspective?…that everyone that has a brain and a calculator agrees that the interest rates right now are as low as everyone under 70 has ever seen and are likely at a historical low?…that if one can actually get a loan that the one thing that all can agree on is that money is cheap and that right now is a good time to borrow?

IS IT TRUE that there is never a good time to borrow money to buy an asset that is depreciating with no financial support mechanism to stop the depreciation?…that borrowing $300,000 to buy a home that was at $600,000 5 years ago but is at $400,000 today in a market that is expected to lose as much as 25% more is a pretty good way for you to lose your hard earned $100,000?…that statistics do support the assertion that Evansville housing has held up better than fast rising and fast falling places like Miami, Los Vegas, or San Bernardino where contractions of over 50% are not unusual?…that never the less Evansville has contracted and has contracted as dramatically as Miami and Vegas at the high end?…that local statistics do not look very bad when foreclosures, distressed situations, and auctions are excluded from the data?…that the following is from a market assessment of the Evansville real estate market done recently by Trulia.com where all recorded sales are included?

IS IT TRUE that the average price per square foot for Evansville IN was $30, a decrease of 46.4% compared to the same period last year?…that the median sales price for homes in Evansville IN for May 11 to Jul 11 was $65,870?…that compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 9.1%, or $6,565, and the number of home sales decreased 95.7%?…that there are currently 1,313 resale and new homes in Evansville on Trulia, including 62 open houses, as well as 207 homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process?…that this 3rd party assessment does not paint a picture of confidence or vibrancy in the market?…that accurate and timely information about any market is valuable to investors or potential homeowners and marketing programs that are designed to send an inaccurate message confuse buyers even more and prolong any recovery that may be in the works?

IS IT TRUE that one of the things that brings real estate to its knees is when a potentially toxic pile of rubble is allowed to lay unabated for an extended period of time?…that about 3 weeks ago the City County Observer identified just such a pile of rubble in the 600 block of East Franklin Street?…that this potential for harm and liability on the part of the owner AND the City of Evansville is still there and now children have been spotted playing on it?…that it is time for the City Council member from the 3rd Ward, the two candidates for the 3rd Ward seat, all three at large members of the City Council, the candidates for at-large seats, the Mayor of Evansville and both candidates for Mayor to do something about this?…that you can like them or not like them but if this kind of a hazard were in the 2nd Ward or the 4th Ward that Councilwomen Missy Mosby and Connie Robinson would be grilling someone’s backside over this?

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8 COMMENTS

  1. Total real estate sales volume through the MLS from 1/1/11-9/12/11 is
    $ 522 million with ERA First Advantage leading the pack with $ 194 million. These figures do not include private sales or sales that did not go through the MLS. The average sale price was $ 138,654. The local real estate market is still “bullish” even with the tightening of credit and tougher lending rules. Evansville does not normally follow the national trend.

    • Come on man, you can’t just exclude anything that is not sold from MLS listings and expect to be taken seriously. You cannot and I repeat cannot cherry pick the sales that happen because of realtors listings and maintain any credibility at all.

      Your stats may be true for MLS but excluding foreclosures and sheriff sales by some counts excludes half of the transactions in the county. When all transactions are included as they should be the numbers in the article above are much more indicative of reality that the marketing drivel that you have posted. Obviously the scientific method and statistics are not required to get a realtors license.

      BULLISH??? Who other than yourself are you kidding? There are dozens of homes that have languished on the market for many months in the $150k +/- neighborhood that I am in. The BULL and the SHI part is believable but only if a T is strategically placed at the end.

      Evansville as a part of the nation does follow national trends. The foreclosure rate is slightly higher than national norms and abandoned houses in the City of Evansville are way higher than the norm. Neither of those would indicate any bullishness.

      Your post indicates your willingness to drink the Kool-Aid pal. MLS stopped being a real barometer of the overall housing market in 2007. It will not become one again until the glut of inventory is depleted and the values have stabilized.

      • First of all I am not sure what you mean by “excluding” private sales or sales that did not go through the MLS. I excluded private party sales because I do not have privy to that information, but that number would be in ADDITION to the MLS sales figure.
        Second, foreclosures would not increase the sales number, but sheriff’s sales most certainly would. And I will agree that the Evansville area has it’s fair share of foreclosures and short sales (these are a nightmare).
        Thirdly, if a property “languishes” on the market for many months, more than likely it is overpriced or functional obsolete.
        And lastly sir, we do not drink Kool-Aid at ERA First Advantage, we drink Dom Perignon.

        • Be careful boasting about drinking Dom in this town. Do you remember what happened to the folks who toasted themselves with Opus One last winter.

          Private sales are public record as are sheriff sales and foreclosures that become resales by a bank. As for short sales there need to be more so that this and other markets can work themselves out.

          Healthy markets are not markets that have as many distressed transactions as there are traditional MLS types of transactions.

          At 100+ properties per month going through sheriffs sales and who knows how many more being sold by banks after foreclosures the current state of the market is not bullish or healthy.

          http://www.courierpress.com/news/2009/jun/05/foreclosures-run-at-08-pace/

          Also, if I believe your statistics I would have to believe that 3,764 homes have sold in the last 8.5 months. There is no way that is true in Vanderburgh County for MLS based sales. You must be including a much larger area.

  2. Strategic Planning?

    1. 2006 Housing peaks, decline in values starts.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_bubble

    2. 12 May 2007 EVSC hires Dr. Vincent Bertram as superintendent, well over a year into the decline.

    3. Bertram submits $149. million strategic plan.

    http://www.14news.com/story/8349862/evcs-board-votes-to-put-strategic-plan-on-nov-ballot

    4. Reality hits home.

    http://www.courierpress.com/news/2011/aug/22/30pt-hed1-10-inches-p/

    * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

    Never mind raises and increased insurance premiums, just for the school budget to remain FLAT, it would still require an increase in property tax rates because of the decline in property values!

    But the smartest guy in the room left when the heat was being turned up.

    Well, as they say: “timing is everything”.

    __

    • Sorry, the first post got scrambled when I posted it. This one has a more understandable time line.

      Editor you may remove the first post for clarification, thanks.

  3. 610 E. Franklin St. is indeed a dangerous situation that should be addressed immediately. I appreciate the CCO pushing the issue. I was told by the Building Commission that the property owner is waiting on their insurance company to clean up the site. I have visited the site and believe that it cannot wait for attention. I’ve asked the Building Commission to immediately take action and put up temporary fencing around the site. The site is dangerous and too attractive to children. It must be secured today if possible.

    Stephanie Brinkerhoff Riley

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