IS IT TRUE the 2015 primary election results are in? Â … can we use them to evaluate the Mayoral candidates likelihood of success in the fall?
IS IT TRUE there were a total of 6,503 votes cast in the Primary? Â …the results show Mayor Winnecke receiving 1,723 to Gail Riecken’s 3,785 or a difference of 2,062?
IS IT TRUE It’s no secret that many more people voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary? Â … the Republican Party has found two strong candidates (Hargis and Elpers), the party failed to file anywhere near a full slate let alone enough candidates to have contested primaries? Â … does this discrepancy between the Republican and Democrat slates invalidate any comparison of the Mayoral totals or can they still be a guide to how this race is shaping up?
IS IT TRUE any time that someone looks at numbers whether for a polling agency or to interpret election results? Â …certain assumptions are made which allow whomever is analyzing the data to make an educated guess as to what happened and what is likely to happen in the future?
IS IT TRUE during the 2011 general election, there were 21,673 votes cast for Mayoral candidatesI? Â … If we assume that the 6,503 people that voted in the primary will return to vote in the fall, then we would expect Mayor Winnecke to remain approximately 2,000 votes behind after their votes are tallied? Â …Â after those 6,500 people cast their ballots, there should be around 15,000 votes remaining? Â …In order to tie, Mayor Winnecke would have to receive 2,000 votes to offset Ms. Riecken’s lead and then get an additional 6,500 of the remaining 13,000 votes.? Â …In other words, after losing the race among the roughly 6,500 primary voters by over 2,000 votes, the Mayor would have to get over 65% of the remaining 15,000 votes to win?
IS IT TRUE the only assumptions made in this analysis are that the primary voters will vote in a substantially similar manner to how they voted this month? Â …an assumption was made that roughly the same number of voters will turn out this fall as they did four years ago?
IS IT TRUE while it is unfair to directly compare the primary vote totals of the two Mayoral candidates, the numbers can be used to give us a reasonable guide as to what to expect in the fall?  Also the wild card in this analysis are the votes that may be received by the Libertarian and Independent candidates in the Fall General election?
IS IT TRUE we can’t wait to read your causal analysis on this subject?
Please take time and vote in todays “Readers Poll”. Also we just posted our current TRI-STATE VOICES TV show. This weeks guests are Courier and Press political reporter Zack Evans and Channel 25 reporter Jordan Vandenberge discussing the primary election results. This is a must view program.
Copyright 2015 City County Observer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.