IS IT TRUE MAY 12, 2015

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IS IT TRUE the 2015 primary election results are in?  … can we use them to evaluate the Mayoral candidates likelihood of success in the fall?

IS IT TRUE there were a total of 6,503 votes cast in the Primary?   …the results show Mayor Winnecke receiving 1,723 to Gail Riecken’s 3,785 or a difference of 2,062?

IS IT TRUE It’s no secret that many more people voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary?  … the Republican Party has found two strong candidates (Hargis and Elpers), the party failed to file anywhere near a full slate let alone enough candidates to have contested primaries?  … does this discrepancy between the Republican and Democrat slates invalidate any comparison of the Mayoral totals or can they still be a guide to how this race is shaping up?

IS IT TRUE any time that someone looks at numbers whether for a polling agency or to interpret election results?  …certain assumptions are made which allow whomever is analyzing the data to make an educated guess as to what happened and what is likely to happen in the future?

IS IT TRUE during the 2011 general election, there were 21,673 votes cast for Mayoral candidatesI?  … If we assume that the 6,503 people that voted in the primary will return to vote in the fall, then we would expect Mayor Winnecke to remain approximately 2,000 votes behind after their votes are tallied?  … after those 6,500 people cast their ballots, there should be around 15,000 votes remaining?  …In order to tie, Mayor Winnecke would have to receive 2,000 votes to offset Ms. Riecken’s lead and then get an additional 6,500 of the remaining 13,000 votes.?  …In other words, after losing the race among the roughly 6,500 primary voters by over 2,000 votes, the Mayor would have to get over 65% of the remaining 15,000 votes to win?

IS IT TRUE the only assumptions made in this analysis are that the primary voters will vote in a substantially similar manner to how they voted this month?  …an assumption was made that roughly the same number of voters will turn out this fall as they did four years ago?

IS IT TRUE while it is unfair to directly compare the primary vote totals of the two Mayoral candidates, the numbers can be used to give us a reasonable guide as to what to expect in the fall?  Also the wild card in this analysis are the votes that may be received by the Libertarian and Independent candidates in the Fall General election?

IS IT TRUE we can’t wait to read your causal analysis on this subject?

Please take time and vote in todays “Readers Poll”. Also we just posted our current TRI-STATE VOICES TV show. This weeks guests are Courier and Press political reporter Zack Evans and Channel 25 reporter Jordan Vandenberge discussing the primary election results. This is a must view program.

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42 COMMENTS

  1. CCO: a wasted IIT. There is no correlation between primary voting and the actual election.

    Please don’t send the message that ” It’s all over, Riecken is the winner”, as that will ensure that people don’t show up at the polls to vote for Riecken.

    • Can you Prove it with facts that there is no correlation between primary voting nd the actual election in November? I seriously doubt your silly assumption that there is no correlation. The people who take the time to vote in the Primary most will more likely than not actually vote in the General Election. And those that don’t take the time to vote in the Primary Election may not always go to the polls in November. That’s a pretty safe assumption where you assumption that they won’t vote is light on the facts. Some people are more interested in the outcome of the elections and fully understand that it’s important to vote. And I’d bet money that those kind of people are more likely than not to vote in both the Primary and the General Election.

      The one wasting time is the one coming in here with silly reversed assumptions that are just dead wrong.

      • How can any correlation be made when you had so many republicans cross-dressing into the democrat primaries and so many sitting out this cat fight? I sat this one out in protest because I feel like my vote is to most of the candidates is nothing to them but fuel for their agendas and they all have the same agenda.

        I will vote for mayor, and reluctantly it will be for Winnecke as blocking maneuver unless Gail can present an actual plan or a dark horse with promise runs on the outside.

        • Blocking Maneuver? Ridiculous rationalization IE, Your deluding yourself,
          — NO ONE outside of Weinzapfel, could be worse than Winnecke!

          • Crash, I’m not deluded I am realistic. Empower a tax it and spend it I will be the first woman mayor for Evansville with a democrat CC and money will flow like sewage on a rainy day. My mind could be changed with an actually plan from Riecken rather than platitudes and telling me what is wrong with Winnecke. Can you tell me what will be different? Sorry Crash, but all I get from those supporting Gail is wishful thinking or snarky comments. (not from you)

          • IE, I appreciate your concerns, I still have trouble with her abdicating her responsibility as State Representative and running off to Illinois. That being said, I would like to believe that that was a aberration in good judgement and not the norm. This run for Mayor is her last Hurrah as Father time limits her tenure in Politics, and I have Hope she rises to the occasion, –I have No Hope that Winnecke will change his spots, I have serious doubts about his Integrity and Honesty, and see them as fundamental character flaws as opposed to errs in judgement. I will be urging my relatives and peers to take a leap of Faith and vote for Mrs. Riecken, I lobby you to do the same, I hold no animosity toward your views, and think you always bring food for thought to your posts. Sincerely, Crash

          • Crash, I have an issue with Winnecke every bit as bad as Gail fleeing and perhaps worse. I spoke at the CC meeting where he sprung the unnamed group of hotel investors on us. I looked directly at him and asked “what took you so long?” I saw nothing in his expression and wondered why. Now I know it was because what the claimed was not exactly so. I felt lied to and played a fool. He also played another friend of mine for a fool over Roberts stadium.

            Nothing would make me happier than to be wrong about Gail, but I don’t see it. The one person I think could make a difference is Musgrave.

      • @moveon: fact: neither Winnecke or Riecken had a primary opponent. Any vote for either of those people at the primary polling both was either: a) A “show of support” from someone who went to the polls specifically to show their support ; or 2) A vote of “convenience”, since the voter was already at the polls to vote for a city council race. fact: there is no assurance that the same number of voters will show up this time as last for mayor’s race–could be many more more voters due to the financial problems; fact: we don’t yet know whether Connie Robinson will swing her voters to Winnecke as she did last time, so virtually all other discussion is moot.

        • Fact: There is no telling what might happen in November. But I’d still bet that those that voted in the Primary are much more likely to vote in November than those that skipped the Primary.

    • Plain facts. . .more registered Dem then Repub. . . Davis ran the worst mayorial campaign in resent history. . .if 875 of those dems had changed their minds, Santa Lloyd would now be at the North Pole together with Christmas Carol. . .the problem with politics. . .your past can begun your future. . . millions of dollars of wild and wasteful spending. . .nothing to show for it. . .expect beautiful renditions of buildings but the final product will NOT resemble. . . Downtown Med for instances. . .beautiful renditions but now 50,000 square ft gone. . .but of course our share in the project has NOT been reduced accordingly. . . Why. . . go to Santa’s workshop room 302 and you will probably see the usual suspects. . . Remember. . .rid yourselves of that VFW membership and obtain the FOW. . .cake to caviar over night. . .better yet. . .get FOC to expedite (Friend of Carol). . .

  2. Most republicans voted in the demo primary, so surely that’s a lot of what’s going on here. I wouldn’t fire up the victory parade just yet. The machine is hard to beat.

    • Careful Ghost you will get Phillip Davis coming back in here and asking your to prove what you say with his facts. Even though he was probably one of the people who switched over to vote against Steve. He’s very protective of Missy too.

      • He’ll say he doesn’t live in town, but my response to that would be look at all the Republican claims of how easy it supposedly is to vote where you’re not supposed to and multiple times.

      • Thats a false equivalency. Your decalaration that somehow voting for Winnecke is a principled act falls short. Group yourself in with Winnecke, as you’ve done, but it is not within your power to make Gail Riecken part of a machine that includes Winnecke. You came out against her the day she announced and have never come up with a single credible reason why. Trying to couch such ill-advised support ‘as blocking maneuver [sic]’ is ludicrous. One of your buddies from the CP asked me why you disliked her so much. I have several theories, all plausible, so did he.

        Winnecke is the worst mayor in memory. Not a single positive accomplishment to point to. A simple conman’s mark, out of his league. He’ll need your vote.

      • Yes, I have been terminally against Gail since she fled to Urbana with our Constitution.
        I am sure you accurately represented my views to your CP gossip buddy, but why not just ask?

        Or better yet, tell me what is different about her that I should believe she will change the direction of this city for the better. I could actually overlook Urbana if those who disagree with me could focus on her plan rather than my character. But I don’t think anyone can.

        • Her trip to Illinois was actually rooted in principle. She didn’t think it would change any outcomes. If your aversion is to principled stands, your distaste for her is understandable. I personally think you will vote for Winnecke because he will run as a Republican and that, despite your hollow disclaimers, is your party. Also, you have never forgiven Gail for running against The Ho for the 8th District seat.

          I don’t have any CP ‘gossip buddies’. Just another willful mischaracterization of others like you regularly engage in here. Did it ever occur to you that your old buddy from the CP might actually read the comments here?

          • I’m delightfully happy being on the opposite side of the mayoral aisle from IE strawman builder and bigotry LLC. If he were Giddy for Gail I’m feel suddenly queasy, even violently ill, might even have seizures.

          • Her flight to Urbana was kowtowing to Bauer and special interest. There was no principle in it. And why would I hold it against her for challenging John? That’s how elections work, and she lost, big time.

            Voting for Winnecke is not a principle with me, it’s an act of desperation. And as far as you anonymous CP gossip buddy, I would suspect he/she would post here. My comment was about how you would misrepresent my views. Not that I really mind. That’s just who you are, and I have have come to like you.

            I could change my mind and get giddy for Gail myself if you, her, or anyone could come up with something more than platitudes or she should be our first woman mayor. I find nothing about her to convince me she is more frugal than Winnecke or that she could pull Evansville out of the dive this city is taking.

            But so you don’t think I am all sour on her, I do admire anyone who would take on the mess the last two mayors have left us.

          • Oh Brains, why so bitter all the time? Please, tell me why you’re giddy for Gail. Or just keep playing the foolish monkey and throwing your dung.

          • Her sojourn to Illinois was a principled protest against Daniel’s legislature ramming through things without meaningful debate. Passing parts of their filthy social agenda with little or no notice. It most assuredly was a principled action and had nothing to do with Bauer or ‘special interests’ as you falsely claim. She did not ‘run off with the constitution’ as also claim. If you truly see voting for Winnecke as an act of desperation you’re scrambling much worse than I thought. Talk to Lloyd, maybe he can give you a better reason to vote for him.

            You probably aren’t mad at Rep. Riecken for ‘challenging John’ but often whined about the treatment your family got after you took them to one of the Riecken/Hostettler debates, I think in Shoals. I don’t think you ever got over it and refused to acknowledge your part in whatever disagreement ensued.

            I do not misrepresent your views here or anywhere else. You often claim that, when drowning in rewrite/damage control/rewind mode, about anyone who reminds you of your own words. I don’t blame you, many of the extreme positions you take are indeed indefensible.

            As I told you, I don’t have any ‘gossip buddies’ at the CP. You are welcome to keep saying it but it just sounds ridiculous. The guy who wondered about the source of your dislike for Mrs. Riecken does not post here to the best of my knowledge.

            I like you too.

        • In essence, here the situation . . .very similar to 1980, our financial condition was severe. . .Sr wanted to run for a third term but suddenly realized that the Treasury was broke . . .then enters old Mike Vandeveer. . .furloughs 360 and turns off one half of the street lights. . .what a country. . .

          Then fast forward. . .Jr arrive in room 302 with great expectations. . .great fan of Dickens. . .old Frank gave him bunches of money in reserve. . .like his father unfortunately and after lessening to Christmas Carol (a/k/a Carol McClintoch) during his tumultuous four years and 50 million later, old Jonathan saddles up and arrives in room 302 and suddenly realizes he has only 200k in the operational accounts and must borrow money from the utility department. . .now old JW leave the room 302 and here’s Santa Lloyd on his sleigh with Christmas Carol and of course, the sleigh ride would not be topped off unless you had Kelley the Elf polishing off old Rudolph’s nose. . .and left the great giveaway three years later and 27 million less in the bank. . .here we stand eating cake but happy to know that some are eating the caviar. . .belt up the sleigh ride will be wild and crazy the next four, of course, unless Miss Gail has the opportunity to stable the raindeer . . . or unless, of course, the Grinch shows up!!!! Ho Ho Ho!!!

        • Leaving the chambers would be principled because she would have remained under the Constitution. Fleeing across the state line to escape the Constitution was a boating her duties and they all should have been impeached.

          Yes, I am still miffed at the group who called my family @@@holes while we were enjoying the festival after the debate, but I hold that against the one who said and those with her who tolerated it not Gail. I don’t think she would approve of that behavior.

          You often misrepresent my views, but don’t we all? So no foul committed. I might be a bit confounding, but I am not that complex. I try to think about my views and say what I think. I hold as much or more against Winnecke as I do Gail.. My reason to support him is that I believe both will take us the same direction, but Winnecke is least likely to succeed.

          Despite our hug fest, the one thing lacking is a reason I should get giddy for Gail.

          • At least 3 of the Democrats currently on the council won’t be there for long. O’Daniel and Lindsey got beat and Riley quit.

            Winnecke would take another electoral victory as a mandate. He might even take us to war.

  3. Here is a link to a Columbia University study on how primaries and general elections correlate. It is pretty deep but the conclusion is that there is a very slight correlation coefficient of 0.08 (1.0 is perfect correlation) associated between success in primaries and general elections. The highest correlation is the personal attributes of a particular candidate who appears on the ballot of both the primary and the general election. Since neither Mayor Winnecke or Gail Reicken was opposed in the primary that metric was not tested at all.

    http://www.columbia.edu/~sh145/papers/primaries_personal_vote.pdf

    • What did you say about Nick? I saw where two of your posts were edited in the other category area.

      • Was talking about him campaigning on no more soft plea deals and how he’s doled out several of them himself. Basically proudly carrying the Republican torch of hypocrisy.

  5. The correlation is driven by the number of registered voters for each party in the city of Evansville.

    Assuming the Riecken campaign focuses on getting out the vote with registered voters, who are a majority democrat, a similar ratio will hold true in the fall election. Additionally, the Mayor has a record to defend, which is not strong in the area of fiscal stewardship.

    It ain’t over till the fat lady sings and a lot can happen between now and election day.

    • What will happen is a motel not hotel that features an outdoor pool. . .in rooms HVAC with the noise . . .non UV glass. . .the cheap windows. . .and a mediocre restaurant . . .or Executive Inn II. . comin around the corner. . .and of course, not 20 million but 32 million. . .new name for Eville. . .Suckersville!! nice ring to it. . .would you say?

  6. Winnecke will most likely win the general simply because he’s the incumbent. I don’t see what difference it makes…he’s as much of a liberal as Reicken.

  7. Thought Union Bosses backed liberals??? and the National Federal of Independent Business backed conservatives?. . .remember those folks who took Obama to the Supreme Court concerning Obamacare. . .they NEVER endorse Dems however, in 2014 Riecken was the ONLY dem that was endorsed in the entire STATE and the Union Bosses are endorsing Santa Lloyd. . .please start testing the product before use!!!

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