New Michigan Poll has Romney ahead of Obama by 4 Points

Presidential and Senate Poll for the General Election

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy, Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn, Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 general election voters to determine their voting preferences.

In what will be a significant blow to Democratic campaign efforts, native son Mitt Romney has climbed into the lead in Michigan’s Presidential contest. The naming of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has delivered a targeted affect on the Michigan and Midwest campaign dynamics. We ballot tested the Presidential candidates and we also tested the following two areas of initial campaign impact and awareness:

Congressman Ryan’s impact on voters’ decision to vote for Mitt Romney.

Congressman Ryan’s controversial 2012 fiscal budget plan and voters support or opposition to the plan.

It is our conclusion that the results to these questions will help initially either validate Ryan’s selection or provide messaging for Democrats that Ryan is not acceptable to the voters. As our data outlines, currently Romney and Ryan are received positively enough to help vault Romney into the lead. Our aggregate findings for this section are as follows:

State-wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of electorate, percentages do not all equal 100%) – 1733 Respondents MOE +/- 2.35%

Question 1:

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election??

(Barack Obama): 43.88%

(Mitt Romney): 47.68%

(Another candidate): 3.96%

(Undecided): 4.01%

Question #2:

Republican nominee Mitt Romney has selected Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his vice presidential nominee. Does the selection of Paul Ryan make you more or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney in the United States Presidential election?

(Paul Ryan makes you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney): 36.11%

(Paul Ryan makes you less likely to vote for Mitt Romney): 27.90%

(If the pick makes no difference in your choice): 36.85%

Question #3:

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has been selected as the Republican vice presidential nominee. Congressman Ryan has proposed federal budgets that drastically cut the federal deficit, cuts taxes on job creators and proposes the reform of Medicare and Social Security benefits. The Tea Party and business groups support Ryan’s budget as fiscally responsible, reducing the size and cost of unsustainable programs. Democrats, senior citizens groups and a number of economists oppose Ryan’s budget proposal citing it gives the richest Americans a tax cut, privatizes Social Security and Medicare and will have a negative effect on the economy. Do you support Congressman Ryan’s budget plan for the federal government?

(For strongly support): 34.77%

(For somewhat support): 13.22%

Total Support 47.99%

(For strongly oppose): 41.59%

(For somewhat oppose): 3.42%

Total Oppose 45.01%

(For undecided): 8.52%

“Romney has identified a clear game changer if his strategy is to divide the Midwest and blow a bugle in President Obama’s Midwestern Strategy”, states Eric Foster, chief pollster and President of Foster McCollum White & Associates. “Romney may be attempting to isolate Illinois and Pennsylvania by having Michigan and Wisconsin in play. That also limited Obama’s opportunity to strengthen resource and advertising in Ohio and Indiana if Michigan and Wisconsin are competitive”.

In spite of national criticism of the Ryan selection and budget plan, our findings suggest that Michigan voters are viewing both as positives for Romney. 36.11% of Michigan voters are more likely to vote for Romney because of the Paul Ryan selection while only 27.90% are less likely to vote for Romney. That is a positive statistical advantage for Romney of 8.21 points or 29.42%. Tarek Baydoun, statistical analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun reflects, “While Romney may have challenges connecting to voters, Paul Ryan seems to humanize him and make him more acceptable to voters like his wife Ann Romney does.”

Additionally the Ryan Budget plan is supported by a plurality of Michigan voters. 47.99% support Ryan’s budget which includes a major overhaul of Medicare and Social Security while 45.01% oppose the plan. What is statistically interesting is the fact that 41.59% of Michigan voters strongly oppose the plan and only 34.77% strongly support the plan. The margin for Ryan’s plan comes from the soft supporters, who outnumber the soft opponents by a four to one margin (13.22% to 3.42%).

“The past week for President Obama was not helpful to his numbers,” per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. “The campaign is very fluid, as we identified in June, the President’s campaign needs to shift its focus towards presenting more of a business case narrative of why voters should re-elect President Obama while better defining why Romney/Ryan is not good for America.”

“The data prompts further study by the Obama team, Democratic Party and related supporters into the declining support for the President in what was a safe state for him,” stated Attorney Tarek Baydoun, statistical analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. “In a state with a significant senior citizen voting population, the overall support for Congressman Ryan’s budget plan must be very troubling for the President and his team.”

Additionally, the polling data suggests a dip in interest among voters in Democratic leaning regions (Southeastern Michigan, the Thumb Region and Major 17 County Cluster) Congressional Districts (5th, 13th and 14th) and Minority voters. This dip in interest would not only hurt President Obama, but also Democratic down ballot candidates and ballot initiatives. President Obama and Democrats must get the interest and excitement levels up in their voting regions to counter balance Romney/Ryan, states Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. “If Mitt Romney is able to excite Republican regions of the state with Paul Ryan and increase their share of turnout to 2010 proportions, Democrats will have a difficult night across the state”.