Total ballots cast in the 2011 City of Evansville elections have now exceeded the total of the votes cast period in the 2007 election. The counts registered thus far by ward are as follows:
Ward 1: 4,455
Ward 2: 2,848
Ward 3: 2,146
Ward 4: 2,201
Ward 5: 4,456
Ward 6: 2,700
Total Voters: 18,806
How does that compare to past years?
By my calculations, Rick should be ahead by about 350-400 votes based on these numbers.
I’m assuming he will get:
40% of the vote in the 1st Ward
60% of the vote in the 2nd Ward
65% of the vote in the 3rd Ward
65% of the vote in the 4th Ward
45% of the vote in the 5th Ward
65% of the vote in the 6th Ward
Reasonable?
I think maybe 5% off. Give more to Lloyd. Just because. No other reason than I’m the type to round up my figures ‘ rather be pleased than not. My hope? A margin that is undesiputable that the citizens are tired of being held hostage to the political machine. R & D alike.
Yeah–probably should add a 3-5% “Louise Factor” for Winnecke. LOL.
So the big question is, who is more likely to turn out early vs. voting on election day.
My gut tells me that Repubs are more likely to vote early. For Winnecke to win, shouldn’t he have a lead going into election day?
I WAS trying to be nice. Yes you should take in that factor.
Although she does have a big enough head that she THINKS she has the clout rondeau voters that much. But believe me, the voters who have been 4th ward voters for 30- 40+ years remember where she crawled, oops, no words nice enough come mind, from. She DOES have a lot of heavy baggage.
Sorry, darn cat!
Reasonable in a normal year but this is not a normal year. I would drop the number in the 2nd ward to no more than 55% as Missy is supporting Winnecke. 3rd, 4th, and 5th are about right and it will really be a smack upside Connie’s head to see Davis take the 4th by a 2 to 1 margin. The 6th Ward may be up at about 70%. First could be lower than 40% for Davis.
Good points.
I just don’t think Connie has that much swag in the 4th at this point. She and Louise have supported Republicans in the past, but you still rarely see a GOP candidate break 35% in the 4th. Who knows…this year could be different if Brooks is really endorsing Winnecke “from the pulpit.” Somehow I doubt it, though.
In the 2nd, I just don’t think Missy has ay coattails. She’ll win, but not by much.
To me, this race all comes down to the 1st. If 1st Ward turnout is high and it reverts to pre-Weinzapfel GOP numbers, Winnecke will win. The problem for Winnecke is that turnout in the 1st has been trending steadily down over the years AND many of the hardcore Republicans have moved out to the county. It’s not as solidly GOP as it used to be.
The 5th is also interesting. I’m assuming Winnecke wins it, but it’s possible that Davis could eke it out. Same story as the 1st–many of the rock-ribbed Republicans that used to come out of the 5th to support Koehler have moved to the county. I see it as a baseline 53-47 Democratic Ward now.
I disagree. The 6th Ward was highly Democrat when Red was still alive but now it can’t be counted on to put out that kind of a margin. I would even go as far as to say that it could go for Winnecke this year.
You underestimate how much influence Connie Robinson has in the 4th Ward, I think the 4th could go Republican this year. The 4th went for Tornatta in the primary and for the most part they are happy about the progress that has occured in their ward.
I would say the total vote will be Winnecke 55% Davis 45%.
Interesting. You may be right. Nothing would surprise me this year.
If Winnecke outright wins the 4th Ward and the 6th Ward, it will be an absolute landslide: We’re talking 60% – 40% territory.
Landslide is right! I don’t see any Republican winning the 4th Ward…if Winnecke gets 40%, he’ll be sitting pretty.
65% in the 4th is pathetic
Have to respectfully disagree.
Vote Walters in the 2nd ward!!! Missy needs to go along with the rest of the machine!!!!
x2! E.L. Lon Walters is the best candidate for the 2nd ward.
NO MO Mosby
I built a spreadsheet to do some more modeling on this.
Let’s assume that the Winnecke gets the following % in each Ward:
1st Ward = 60%
2nd Ward = 45%
3rd Ward = 40%
4th Ward = 40%
5th Ward = 55%
6th Ward = 40%
Davis would still be leading at this point by about 170 votes.
I think the above percentages are incredibly generous for Winnecke. No Republican I can think of has approached 40% in the 3rd and 4th Wards. I don’t think his margin in the 5th will be 10%. And frankly, I’m not convinced he can get 60% out of the 1st.
To show you how sensitive the model is, let’s change just two of the numbers:
Let’s say that Winnecke drops to “just” 57% in the 1st and 35% in the 4th. Davis is now leading by 500 votes.
If Winnecke drops to just 35% in the 6th Ward, the margin would now be at 700.
This is why it is so hard for a Republican to win in the city of Evansville.
There are some scenarios where Winnecke wins, of course. If he can pull 65% out of the 1st Ward AND not drop below 40% in ANY of the other Wards, he will eke it out.
Some realistic scenarios have this being decided by under 5 votes.
For example, the following:
1st Ward
Davis = 38%, Winnecke = 62%
2nd Ward
Davis = 54%, Winnecke = 46%
3rd Ward
Davis = 55%, Winnecke = 45%
4th Ward
Davis = 60%, Winnecke = 40%
5th Ward
Davis = 47%, Winnecke = 53%
6th Ward
Davis = 60%, Winnecke = 40%
If those numbers were to play out, Davis would literally win by 1 vote.
Bottom line = if you are a Davis supporter, you need to get on the phone and bring 2-3 people to the polls. Every vote counts in a race like this.
I built a model as well and put in your percentages with the 11:00 am Ward totals and come up dead even 6308 – 6308. The vote total is an even number so I find it unlikely that you could ever have a victory by one vote. Truncate your decimals to zero for Davis then subtract that total from the Ward total to get Wnnecke’s totals and your model will be perfect. Good luck and I await the next update for vote totals.
Joe-
Yes, you are correct. I was rounding.
If Davis wins it will be with the assistance of Democratic drones who vote multiple times and Judge Heldt, who has a proven record of refusing to punish such illegal behavior. And what was the Whiney-Boy Machine will be inherited by Davis, who will be crowned King by the Courier and Press.
You dont think Weezie and her zombie army havent been racking up Winnecke votes this past week?
headinsand.jpg
Based on my current assumptions, I’ve got Davis with about a 50 vote lead.
Those assumptions being the following percentages for Davis, by Ward:
1st = 38%
2nd = 55%
3rd = 55%
4th = 62%
5th = 45%
6th = 60%
I believe that those are *conservative* estimates from Davis’ point of view, meaning that he should outperform them.
The big drivers are obviously the 1st and 5th ward, where the turnout is the highest.
If Rick gets to 40% in the 1st Ward, his margin increases to 231. Likewise, if he gets to 47% in the 5th Ward, his margin increases to 231. If he hits both targets, his margin is a more comfortable 409.
spreadsheet jockeys: back slowly away from your keyboards. It is after 6:00 PM. Go to a bar and watch the ACTUAL results . . .
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