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45
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45 COMMENTS

  1. Wall Street Journal, April 6, 2016 – The Odds Rise of a 2016 Democratic White House Victory

    While all eyes have been turned toward the dramatic Primary contests in both political parties, the fundamentals and demographics have been shifting toward a general election White House win for the Democrats. As the nonwhite share of the electorate increases, Democrats shift upward by 1 or even 2 percentage points every four-year cycle—a significant gain. The Republican Party envies this ever increasing advantage.

    Factors specific to 2016 come into play: The American people’s assessment of two-term President Barack Obama’s performance has been rising steadily. It has increased to an average of 49% today. This makes a big difference: According to Emory University, the incumbent president’s job approval has more impact on the vote share of his party’s nominee than does any variable. If Mr. Obama’s average approval were to rise by an additional point to 50% or more, the 2016 Democratic nominee could increasingly expect to win the popular vote if the approval continues.

    Another potential plus for the 2016 Democratic nominee is the economy’s improving condition. Since its recessionary low, the U.S. economy has added more than 13 million jobs, and the unemployment rate has fallen by half. Since Sept. 15, as once-discouraged workers have begun to seek employment, the share of adult Americans in the labor force has risen to 63% from 62.4% (the labor force participation rate is increasing under Obama). The Pew Research Center reports that Americans are more positive about the job market than they were before the Great Recession began. Between March 2010 and last month, the share of Americans reporting that “plenty of jobs” are available in their communities rose to 44% from 10%, reaching its highest level in the past 15 years. Wages adjusted for inflation continue to steadily rise in American households.

    Median household income in February was 3.7% higher than the same month a year earlier, and 10.2% higher than its recessionary low in August 2011. A finer-grain analysis by economist Robert Shapiro shows that the majority of U.S. households have experienced “healthy” income gains since the end of 2011. Household incomes of millennials and Gen-Xers did well, with younger Hispanics scoring wide gains. Even Americans in the late-40s to mid-50s age bracket gained.

    Trends in party affiliation also favor Democrats. As recently as last fall, Republicans and Americans leaning toward the GOP stood tied with Democrats and Democratic leaners at 42% of the electorate. Today, according to Gallup, Democrats have opened a six-point edge, 46% to 40%. Given how closely voting tracks partisanship in this polarized era, the shift bodes ill for the GOP’s 2016 presidential nominee.

    Although these fundamentals shape national elections, the remainder of the primary season can yield only two possible outcomes—an outright Trump victory or the first genuinely open and contested nominating convention in nearly seven decades. If Mr. Trump prevails, many Republicans are likely to stay home on Election Day, and more than a few will quietly support the Democratic nominee. If he falls short on the first ballot and is denied the nomination, he and his supporters will cry foul, and a formal party split would be likely.

    Republicans who fear not only a loss of the White House, but massive Senate and House losses as well, are not exaggerating the risks they face.

  2. We’re in agreement on this one, DB. Bernie Sanders remains a longshot candidate, but he would mop the floor with anyone the GOP may field for the presidency.

    • It’s not my opinion….it’s just the WSJ’s analysis of the the fall elections.
      (But I agree the analysis is pretty dead on.)

      • Andy Borowitz

        Writing in Salon.com, Alex Pareene criticized Borowitz as “incredibly bland” and a “one-man fake news machine” who produces “with soothing predictability an endless stream of topical jokes and sentences that resemble jokes.” Borowitz, Pareene wrote, plays primarily to “self-satisfied liberals” with material that “is designed to elicit a smirk of recognition and agreement from your average polite NPR listener.” Pareene concluded, “The best humor involves the element of surprise. Borowitz never surprises. . . . Borowitz is perfect for the comfortable old liberal readership of the New Yorker, so long as no one wants to even slightly challenge or surprise them.”

        Gawker.com has called Borowitz a “hack New Yorker satirist” who has waged “a war of attrition on the very idea of comedy.” Gawker later criticized Borowitz for his brand of “algorithm-friendly fake news parasites that plague our Facebook timelines under the auspice of satire. Satire that is little more than a vehicle for misinformation and much more akin to a lie than anything else.”

        * * * * * * * *

        I would say that about covers Andy. Another New York Jew who would be happiest to see Bernie as President, but more than willing to settle for Hillary if she escapes a prison sentence.

        • I know exactly where you’re coming from Press.

          I hate my brother and my neighbor too because they are Trump supporters.

          Hell, my neighbor is even a friigin Jew!

          And black….

          • From your article;

            Zionist White Supremacy “The Jerusalem Post explains black Jews face double standards in Israel to which Ashkenazim (Jews of European descent) are not subjected”

            Seems to work the same for black presidents in this country.

            Right Press?….

          • Lamasco.

            He’s not religious at all but drinks a lot.

            That’s where I figure he got indoctrinated in Trumpism.

            Drives 30 minutes one way to go there everyday. Like Trump said, “I could shoot somebody and my people would stick with me.”

            Almost as scary as religion ain’t it?….

        • Oh man PAK!! ….harsh, distractive comments! “Attack the author, ignore the humor and substance of the cartoon. And mention he is a Jew too, by the way.”
          Normally you are excellent at winning the argument PAK, but this time, you went right in the gutter with so many of those you normally put in their place.

        • The inability to laugh at oneself is a terrible disability. It leads to ulcers, frown lines, and Irritable Bowel Syndrome, to name only a few of the physical problems.

    • Evilletaxpayer a right wing scum bag like you would support an incestuous pedophile. He may even pick Phil Robertson as his running mate.

  5. If the US can afford to be the policeman of the world, we can afford to educate our youth, provide healthcare for all, and, provide a secure retirement for working Americans.

    • Finally, something I can agree with. And while we’re at it we need to stop being the welfare source for all of the 3rd world countries and outsourcing jobs to them.

      • Human Aid is cheaper than War.
        In $ and lives, right PCD?
        Retreating to seclusion in the Castle guarantees you will be surrounded and overthrown.

  6. And……I am still stunned to see Pressanykey be so blatant today.
    Something is off.
    He actually posted the words “Another New York Jew”….amazing.

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