The Congressional Impact on the American Diaspora
By JOE WALLACE
NOVEMBER 10, 2024
Based on current population trends and projections leading up to the 2030 Census, several states are expected to experience changes in their representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. The source for this data and the calculations were found in the database of the Brennan Center for Justice. The projected changes if realized would increase14 seats in the House of Representatives in states that are predominantly Republican and reduces predominantly Democrat would lose 10 seats.
States Projected to Gain Seats:
- Texas: Anticipated to gain four additional seats, reflecting its significant population growth.
- Florida: Expected to gain three seats due to its continued population increase.
- Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee: Each of these states is projected to gain one seat, aligning with their steady population growth.
- Arizona, Idaho, Utah: These mountain states are also expected to gain one seat each, corresponding with their rising populations.
States Projected to Lose Seats:
- California: Projected to lose four seats, marking a significant shift as the state experiences population stagnation or decline.
- New York: Expected to lose three seats, continuing a trend of population decrease.
- Illinois: Anticipated to lose two seats due to ongoing population decline.
- Pennsylvania: Projected to lose one seat, reflecting its slower population growth compared to other regions
- These projections are based on current trends and could change with shifts in migration patterns, birth rates, or other demographic factors before the 2030 Census. The anticipated changes underscore a continuing shift in political representation toward the South and Mountain West regions of the United States. A similar look at projections for 2040 indicates even further shifts away from Democrat states to Republican states.
