Polls vs. Moles: The Results and Predictions

On Wednesday, October 20, 2010 a select group of City County Observer Moles had a secret gathering at a local private dining establishment to discuss their prediction for the upcoming election. There was much discussion centering on the game changers and surprises that have happened during the last few weeks of the election. All in all there were several potential surprises and several potential upsets that dominated the conversation. Some notable surprises were the strength of the campaigns of Ron Bacon, Steven Lowell Smith and Malcolm Gwinn’s phenominal door to door campaigns, and the highly competitive nature of the race for Vanderburgh County Prosecutor between Stan Levco and Nick Hermann. The Moles were also surprised at the twists and turns and defensive campaign strategies that have been successfully employed by Gail Riecken in order to counter the aggressive campaign waged by Cheryl Musgrave for the 77th District Indiana House of Representatives seat.

The CCO Moles all entered a contest individually predicting the winner of each contest. Please note that a vote to win does not constitute a CCO Mole’s support of a candidate. There are some races that are assumed to be blowouts where a particular Mole such as Mole #3 would lay its reputation as a local political prophet on the line for an expected winner, but openly expressed support for the opposing candidate.

There are several areas of interest where the CCO reader polls and the Moles had some disagreements or uncertainty too. In the District 77 race for Indiana House of Representatives the CCO readers poll favored Wendy McNamara yet the CCO Moles predicted that Bob Deig will make the trip to Indianapolis. In a surprise winner of a CCO Reader poll Steven Lowell Smith defeated Suzanne Crouch in the City County Observer reader poll for the District 78 race for Indiana House of Representatives. Mr. Smith defeated Ms. Crouch in the poll by single digits out of several hundred votes, yet the Moles predict that Ms. Crouch will win by a comfortable margin.

The CCO reader polls and Moles agree that the race between Patty Avery and Jim Tomes will be much closer than most expect due to the grass roots movement of Tea Partiers and Reagan Democrats that are starting to line up behind Mr. Tomes. Other races that produced very close results and healthy discussions were the District 75, and District 77 races for Indiana House of Representatives and the races for Knight and Center Township Trustees.

The Moles participating included Moles #112, #69, #101, #12, #13, #167, #7, #36, and of course our Nostradamus of local politics Mole #3. As Mole #3 is feeling confident in his ability as a local political prophet it has asked that it have its predictions noted individually. The predictions are below.

Federal Elections
Senate
Brad Ellsworth 
Dan Coats X Polls, Moles, and Mole #3 Predict Impressive Win in Senate Race

8th District House of Representatives
Larry Buschon X Polls, Moles, and Mole #3 Impressive Win for Brad’s 8th District Seat,
Trent Van Haafton 

State Elections
Senate
Patty Avery X Polls, Moles & Mole #3 Predict a Close Win for Avery (Upset Possible)
Jim Tomes 

House of Representatives
District 75
Ron Bacon X Polls, Moles & Mole #3 (Door to Door Campaign could decide this Contest )
Mike Goebel 

District 76
Wendy McNamara  Polls (Polls Go to Wendy)
Bob Deig  Moles including Mole #3 to Dieg

District 77
Cheryl Musgrave 
Gail Riecken X Polls, Moles (4 to 4) & Mole #3 Predicts Riecken by 3% to 5%

District 78
Suzanne Crouch  Moles & Mole #3 Predict a Comfortable Victory for Crouch
Steven L. Smith  Polls (Close Reader Poll Victory for Newcomer Smith)

Local Contests

Prosecutor
Nick Herrmann X Mole #3 says this race is changing too fast and is too close to call right now
Stan Levco X Moles All Moles predict a win for Levco

Mole #3 may release a prediction on Monday!!

County Commissioner Upset Alert
Troy Tornatta 
Marsha Abell X Moles, Mole #3 & Polls UNANIMOUSLY Predict an Upset Win for Abell

Auditor
Joe Gries X Moles, Mole #3 & Poles Pick Gries in a Landslide
Maura Robinson 

County Council

2nd District
Tom Shetler, Jr. X Polls, Mole #3 and Moles Predict a Landslide for Shetler
Hayden Barth 

3rd District
Bill Kramer 
Stephanie Terry X Polls, Mole #3, and Moles Agree that Terry keeps her Seat in a Landslide

4th District
Russell G. Lloyd, Jr. X Polls, Mole #3, and Moles Predict a Lloyd Landslide
Tim Taylor 

Assessor
Jonathan Weaver 
Bill Fluty Jr. X Moles, Mole #3, & Polls UNANIMOUSLY Predict Fluty Victory

Township Trustees
Perry
Rick Riney X Polls, Mole #3, & Moles are with Riney in the Biggest Victory Margin of the Day
Curtis Baker 

Center MANGOLD HAS TIGER BY THE TAIL
Robert Mangold  CCO Reader Poll won by Mangold by a Small Margin
Jim Tiger Ritter X Mole #3, & Moles Agree that Tiger had to fight hard for this predicted win

Knight
Kathryn Martin X Polls, Mole #3 & Moles Predict a Big Win for Martin to Keep the Toughest Job in Town
Jim Braker 

Tie Breakers (Moles Only)

Indiana Secretary of State
Vop Osoli 
Charlie White X Moles and Mole #3 Predict Close Victory for White

Kentucky US Senate
Jack Conway 
Rand Paul X Moles and Mole #3 Predict an Aqua Buddha Blowout

Make-Up of Federal Legislative Bodies

House of Representatives: __(9)_ (R) __0__(D) All Moles Predict Republican takeover of House
US Senate: ___4__ (R) ___4__ (D) ___1__(TIE) Moles are Confused, One Mole Predicts a Tie

Mole #3 Predicts that the United States Senate stays in Democratic Hands

These predictions and polls are not in any way presented or intended to be an endorsement of any candidate. The City County Observer hopes that all eligible voters register and that all registered voters vote. We furthermore hope that each and every voter puts the same work effort into doing some research, getting to know the candidates for office, and personally making an informed decision based on intelligent thought and free will. We do not make endorsements and we do not encourage others to put much faith into any person or entity that pretends to tell others how to vote.

Our suggestion is that if you are letting someone else tell you how to vote, please just stay home. It is a affront to thinking informed voters to have mindless parrots kill their vote because somebody told them how to vote.

The City County Observer takes the right to vote seriously. Our current poll makes a subject of straight tickets vs. split tickets. Split tickets currently lead straight tickets of both parties by a comfortable margin. Our readers as it may surprise some people to learn are overwhelmingly independent thinkers who really do reflect on the decision to vote. These are the very people who will be deciding all of the close elections this year.

There is a week to go. It is time to choose. Next Tuesday is the Point of no Return for the 2010 elections. We encourage everyone to get energized, get informed, if you have made your choices please help the candidate of your choice with your time and your money as all of our Moles do. From all of our Moles, our Staff, and our Ownership, the City County Observer says, “good luck, good thoughts, God Bless the Constitution, the United States of America and our brave fighting men and women that we want bought home safely soon”.