Handicapping the November City Council Elections: Probabilities in parentheses
Ward One: Dan McGinn (100%) Unopposed
Ward Two: Incumbent Missy Mosby (D) (55%) vs. E. Lon Walters (R) (45%)
Missy successfully distanced herself from the thrashing that Team Weinzapfel took in this year’s Democratic primary with positive name recognition, visibility in her ward, and in breaking with Team Weinzapfel on the Robert’s Stadium ballfield issue. Her incumbency to a large extent will be dependent upon her ability to shed her service on Team Weinzapfel and focus instead on the unique needs of the Second Ward
Ward Three: Stephanie Brinkerhoff Riley (65%) vs. TBD (R) (35%)
It is rumored that the Republicans will be fielding a candidate to oppose upstart Stephanie Brinkerhoff Riley who ran an intelligent primary campaign and will be difficult to defeat. If Ms. Riley stays on point and out of political shenanigans she has a build in advantage
Ward Four: Connie Robinson (100%) Unopposed
Ward Five: Brent Grafton (R) (56%) vs. Incumbent John Friend (44%)
Friend like Mosby will have the challenge of shedding the image of being a loyal member of Team Weinzapfel in the more Republican 5th Ward. Grafton has already put forth some ideas and position papers and is preaching to the choir in the 5th Ward. Grafton is also seen as being nearly 100% consistent with his positions throughout his life in Evansville. It will come as a surprise to many that these candidates although coming from different parties will share more views than one would expect.
Ward Six: Al Lindsey (60%) vs. Shaun Short (40%)
Al Lindsey has just defeated an entrenched incumbent and a member of the Mosby family in a highly democratic ward. Mr. Short is a newcomer to politics and will have to run an aggressive campaign to increase his potential to draw votes in a part of Evansville that is typically not supportive of Republican candidates.
At-Large (based on primary results and 55/45 democratic voting advantage)
Dr. H. Dan Adams (D) (56%)
Jonathan Weaver (D) (61%)
Conor O’Daniel (D) (48%)
Michelle Mercer (R) (50%)
Pete Swaim (R) (42%)
Bill Kramer (R) (43%)
Republican Cumulative Probability: 411%
Democrat Cumulative Probability: 489%
Therefore based on where things stand today the highest outcome probability is for the Evansville City Council to have 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans when the smoke clears in November.