Republicans Are Going To Win The Senate In November – Here’s Why
By Ward Baker, NRSC Executive Director

When ballots are counted on Election Day, Republicans will once again hold a majority in the United States Senate. You may think that’s a bold statement in an election cycle that has been defined by unpredictable circumstances. But we knew from the beginning what we were up against and the NRSC began working with candidates and staff in January 2015 to build the most sophisticated and self-reliant Senate campaigns ever. You won’t read about these strategies and tactics on the front page of the New York Times, but they’re a major reason Senate Republicans will be victorious in November.

There’s no question that the dynamics of a presidential election can create a great deal of uncertainty for downballot candidates – and in both parties, this cycle has created more uncertainty than most. While nearly every observer and talking head spent 2015 writing off Donald Trump’s chances at securing the Republican nomination, we were already working with our Senate campaigns last summer to prepare for every possible outcome to the presidential primary. As the Washington Post discovered, the NRSC began mapping out a strategy for our candidates to run concurrently with any potential presidential candidate last summer.

But winning an election is about much more than just the top of the ticket. For almost 18 months, we have worked with all our campaigns to make sure they had the necessary resources, tools, and staff in place – from data to finance to digital to communications. None of our candidates will be the 2016 version of Mark Udall, who lost in the biggest upset of 2014 in a state that many Republicans wrote off. Cory Gardner was a model candidate, but his victory was aided by something totally out of his control – Udall’s complete lack of preparation for a difficult race. By the time Gardner announced his candidacy in March 2014, Udall had wasted half an election cycle resting on his heels and found himself in the race of his life with a B-rate team and lackluster fundraising. He was content, complacent, and lazy. Because of our early preparation, not a single Republican will burn daylight trying to figure out what to do in the event of a tough challenge.

At the NRSC, our goal is to construct campaigns the way a shipbuilder would construct a ship for a long journey: build a vessel, train a crew, give them coordinates, and set them to sail. Our campaigns are staffed and fully functional. We’ve done exhaustive training for campaign staff, with the NRSC hosting a communications boot camp, two digital summits, two campaign management and field workshops, eight in-state field schools, and we’re currently underway with eight digital training sessions.

The results of our preparation are already apparent. In a cycle where many reporters like to pontificate about the “Trump effect,” our Senators have successfully navigated tricky waters in their primary contests. Across the board, Republican Senators have outperformed the top of the ticket in raw votes, and Senators like Richard Shelby, John Boozman, Richard Burr, and Mark Kirk scored decisive primary wins that were hardly guaranteed given the mood of Republican voters. In fact, every Republican Senate incumbent has won with over 60%.

In addition to mastering the intricate mechanics of running a modern campaign, we have a very clear messaging strategy. Republican Senators are talking to voters like they’re running for sheriff. Every message is highly targeted and purposefully local. Our Senators are making sure their voters know they’re focused on issues that matter in their states – Rob Portman and Kelly Ayotte are leading the fight against opioid abuse; Roy Blunt is a forceful advocate for mental health funding; John McCain and Ron Johnson are going above and beyond for reform and accountability at Veterans Affairs and VA hospitals. We want to make sure voters are casting votes for Senate candidates based solely on issues related to that Senate race – not up, down, or adjacent on the ticket. We’ve embraced data analytics, new digital platforms and non-traditional message delivery in order to talk to voters in targeted segments amounting to 7-8% of the electorate at a time. The results are self-evident: Portman is running the best field and data program in America and Pat Toomey has been a leader on the digital front with the use of Snapchat to expand his message universe.

While we’ve spent our time preparing for every possible outcome, our opponents are stuck with the drag of Hillary Clinton, perhaps the least popular Democrat ever to be nominated for the presidency. Her pledged support for Barack Obama’s Iran deal, her efforts to close Guantanamo and bring terrorists to American soil, and her promise to continue the disastrous Obama legacy makes her downright toxic. And for all the bluster we’ve heard from the DSCC about expanding the map, the Clinton campaign’s recent decision to coordinate with only a handful of Senate candidates is proof that so-called second tier Democrats are struggling to gain traction. Clinton has essentially told candidates like Jason Kander, Ann Kirkpatrick, and Patty Judge, ‘Good luck; you’ll need it.’

And while the field is essentially set on our side, Democrats are spending money just to drag their preferred candidates through brutal primaries. Ted Strickland spent half of his war chest just to beat an unknown city council member. The DSCC and outside groups spent $5 million in Pennsylvania to secure a win for Katie McGinty. If $5 million was the price tag in Pennsylvania, imagine how much they will spend in Florida, where unelectable liberal hero Alan Grayson is relentlessly pounding DSCC-backed Patrick Murphy in a primary that won’t be decided until late August. After Patty Judge quickly fell flat in the wake of much Washington-based fanfare, the DSCC endorsed her just to turn on the spending faucet so she reaches 35 percent in her contested primary and avoids going to a convention, where she would almost certainly lose. Spin aside, these are not the actions of a party on solid footing heading into the summer before the election.

We have the best candidates, the best campaigns, the best messages, and we have been gearing up for a fight since day one. No stone has been left unturned, no campaign left unprepared, and not a single campaign tool ignored. The NRSC has been unrelenting in our efforts to prepare our campaigns, and as Democrats spend the heart of the campaign hoping for the best, we will execute a strategy that has been in the works for a year in a half. Republicans are writing the book on how to win in an unpredictable environment and we will hold our Senate majority in November.