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“READERS FORUM” JULY 7, 2016
WHATS ON YOUR MIND TODAY?
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GOP Down-Ballot Fortunes — Not So Bad?
GOP Down-Ballot Fortunes — Not So Bad?
briefing by the Conservative Intel
Why congressional Republicans are always less popular than congressional Democrats
Donald Trump may not be leading in most presidential polls right now, but Republicans suddenly feel they have reason to like their chances down-ballot. For one thing, there’s Marco Rubio’s re-entry into the Florida Senate race, just as a grave scandal slammed his most formidable opponent. There’s also a new poll showing them even with Democrats on the generic ballot.
Early signs, perhaps, of a mild 2016?
Congress 2016
Again and again, we have asked how Trump at the top of the ticket might affect races down-ballot. The precise effect on turnout may remain a mystery, but in terms of public preference the effect can still be measured in polls.
Last week, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll came out, perhaps providing a less dire answer than many Republicans have expected.
The poll shows the generic congressional ballot — the vote that for each of the two parties for Congress, tied at 46 percent. This is a significant finding, for three reasons.
First, recent history: Previously, the same poll had showed Democrats with a nine-point lead. Although this tie does not match all available data, it does match the Washington Post/ABC News poll, bringing two of the three major media polls into alignment on the question. Republicans were quite afraid here, because they had been ahead or tied in nearly all polls between February and May, then suddenly fell behind when Donald Trump clinched the GOP nomination.
Second, the present: The same respondents in this very same late June poll opted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in a head-to-head, 46 to 41 percent. (Clinton only led 39 to 38 percent in a four-way race including Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.) This is also a group of respondents that views Obama’s performance favorably, 51 to 45 percent. So Republican congressional candidates have to be happy to see they have a shot of outperforming both Trump and Obama’s disapproval numbers. If Trump wins, so do they, in all likelihood. If he loses, they might just keep the U.S. House anyway.
Third, ancient history: The generic ballot question at this point in 2008 showed a 19-point margin in favor of Democrats, according to the same poll. Obviously, a tie is considerably better than that for congressional Republicans. Still, when it comes to this specific metric, a tie historically signifies a Republican advantage. In June 2014, five months before what turned out to be an excellent Republican midterm election, Republicans actually trailed by two points in this poll.
Whatever the reason for this divergence between Trump and the congressional GOP in polling, this may hold forth some grounds for optimism among Republicans that even a terrible loss in presidential race might not turn into another 2008, when Obama’s victory was accompanied by an additional, brutal beating of Republicans down-ballot, after their already devastating losses of 2006. That election gave Obama complete power.
A tie on the generic ballot, on the other hand, hints that such a result is unlikely this time, even in the event of a Clinton victory. A tie, by this measure, is easily good enough for the GOP to maintain its House majority.
Florida: The Senate is another story, of course, but there are at least a few hopeful signs there as well.
The re-entry of Marco Rubio into the Florida Senate race is one very positive development for the party. Before this, Florida Republicans faced the challenge of creating a newly successful political career for one of several obscure aspirants in an unpredictable political environment. Now, they only need to defend an incumbent who, even though he lost his home state primary to Trump, remains quite popular at home.
Even better, the more formidable of the two main Democratic hopefuls for the seat was busted for faking his career credentials. The stories about Patrick Murphy were devastating to his chances. They certainly weaken Murphy, who could offer no good response to charges that were clearly true. The charges also give new life to the possibility of a primary victory by Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson, who is almost certainly unelectable statewide.
Congress approval: One counterargument, often trotted out, is that congressional Republicans are consistently more unpopular than congressional Democrats. It is true that the poll numbers show this consistently, but it is even more important to understand why, because it demonstrates why this metric should not be trusted.
Take the latest Quinnipiac poll: Only 16 percent approve of Republicans in Congress, with 78 percent disapproving. And compare that to Democrats in Congress, whose approval is 34 percent and disapproval just 61 percent.
That might make you think Republicans are on the edge of a collapse, but the fact is, this is nearly always the case. Republicans posted very similar numbers in June 2014, for example (18 percent approval, 73 percent disapproval).
Here’s the reason that isn’t true. The explanation for the discrepancy between Republicans and Democrats in Congress is almost entirely due to voters who vote for Republican candidates but voice disapproval of Republicans. Democratic voters simply aren’t critical of their own party in the same way Republicans are.
Take the split by party in this poll:
Republicans in Congress, Republican voters only:
Approve: 28%
Disapprove: 65%
Democrats in Congress, Democratic voters only:
Approve: 70%
Disapprove: 26%
Not only is this dynamic assymetrical, but there is a near symmetry in the assymetry, so to speak. Republican voters are far less complacent and more critical of their own party as a rule. You will find this to be the case in every poll like this one, going back for some time.
And this tendency of Republicans to be extra critical drives nearly all of the difference between the two parties in this sort of poll. (Independents also drive this difference to some degree, but don’t forget that they tend to vote and be more conservative on average, balancing out an assymetry in formal party identification that favors Democrats.)
The hope of the GOP is that the conservative voters creating this disparity do as they did in 2014 — vote for the party they’re unhappy with over the one they cannot stand. But we live in the Trump era, so don’t forget that this is not a guarantee. If discontent becomes great enough that Republican voters won’t actually vote, then this measure could indeed become meaningful. It’s just that it really shouldn’t be taken too seriously as a sign of electoral doom for now, because it never has been in the past.
What Happens When You Warn Students About Their Loan Debt?
What if lowering student debt was as easy as sending students a letter?
by Sophie Quinton for Stateliness News/Pew Trust
Indiana University officials say borrowing by undergraduates at the school has dropped 18 percent since 2012. That’s when the university began sending students annual letters that estimate their total loan debt and future monthly payments, as part of a push to boost their financial literacy.
Inspired by the results at IU, Indiana last year began requiring all colleges that accept state aid to send letters. Nebraska followed with a similar law this spring.
Republican Rep. Casey Cox, the author of the Indiana legislation, says he gets phone calls from officials in other states interested in the idea. And U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly, an Indiana Democrat, has proposed requiring the federal Department of Education to keep a list of financial literacy best practices, perhaps including student loan letters.
A growing number of students need to borrow — and borrow heavily — to finance their college educations. And giving them more information about their debt may help change their borrowing habits. Research suggests that students say no to loans when they’re told how much they’re borrowing and how loans could weigh on them in the future.
But the approach carries risks, too. In some cases, borrowing less may make it harder for students to graduate. They might have to spend more time working and less time studying. Or they might opt for less expensive institutions that do less to guide them.
Although IU officials think financial literacy makes a difference, they haven’t actually proven that the letters — or any other initiative — drove borrowing down.
“From a research perspective, we haven’t gotten to the point where we can say it had an impact,†said Victor Borden, professor of educational leadership and policy studies at IU Bloomington. He and a team of researchers are scouring data to find out exactly what worked.
Students Who Borrow Too Much
Cox, the author of the Indiana law, is one of the youngest members of the Legislature. The 30-something is still paying off his law school loans.
He said he was inspired by his alma mater’s efforts and his own memories of how tempting it was for students to borrow as much as possible. “At a young age, you may not really understand the consequences of that debt,†he said.
Some students may not know they’re borrowing at all. Researchers at the Brookings Institution, a centrist Washington, D.C., think tank, dug into federal survey data in 2014 and found that over a quarter of first-year college students with federal student loans didn’t know their loans came from the federal government. About half of those students had no idea they were borrowing money to pay for college.
Students can be confused for a number of reasons. Their parents may be handling the financial aid details, for example. The way student loans are packaged and disbursed doesn’t help, said Andrew Kelly of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning Washington think tank.
A few months after a student sends a financial aid application to the federal government, an award letter arrives from the college, which may knock a chunk of money off the tuition bill — or cover it entirely. “It just kind of arrives, like manna from heaven,†Kelly said of financial aid.
Behind the scenes, two things happen: The government calculates how much the student’s family can afford to pay for the education. And the college calculates the total cost of attendance, including living expenses. Both of those calculations determine how much federal and state need-based grants, work-study aid and loans the student can receive. The college may provide scholarships, too.
Students usually accept whatever aid colleges award them without questioning whether they could live more cheaply — and borrow less. And, Cox has said, some students may borrow extra money to fund a better lifestyle.
The temptation to borrow too heavily may be particularly strong for part-time students, who can borrow the same amount for living expenses as full-time students. The students may end up borrowing for many years, racking up more debt or even hitting federal loan limits before they manage to graduate.
More Information May Help
When the news broke that borrowing at IU had fallen, students there told Bloombergthe loan letters had spurred them to avoid debt by working more, looking for scholarships, and avoiding spending on living expenses like new cellphones.
But it’s not clear that IU’s letters are driving the decrease in borrowing. The letters were part of a bigger push to educate students about money that included counseling, a podcast, and a new website that offers quizzes and calculators. The university also has changed its financial aid process to make it easier for students to say no to loans.
Before all the financial literacy work began, said Phil Schuman, the university’s director of financial literacy, “I don’t think students actually knew they had the option to take less.â€
IU also has been pushing its 94,000 undergraduates to enroll in 15 credits each semester — the pace necessary for graduation in four years. “It might not necessarily be that students are taking out less money each semester, but that they’re graduating on time,†Schuman said.
Across IU’s seven main campuses, 42 percent of full-time students seeking a bachelor’s degree graduate in four years, up from 38 percent five years ago according to the latest data. This past year, the cost of attendance — including tuition, fees, room and board —ran to $21,412 for in-state IU students.
A team led by IU’s Borden will use statistical analysis to parse all the factors that could be affecting borrowing, from the availability of state grants to student wealth. They will try to determine whether the financial aid letters, the literacy push, or the change in loan processing did the most to lower overall debt. The university made other changes during the period, such as increasing institutional grant aid, which also could have made a difference.
Other research shows that a combination of letters and counseling can change students’ borrowing and academic behavior.
Montana State University students with high debt who received letters alerting them to that debt and encouraging them to seek counseling borrowed an average of one-third, or $1,360, less the next semester, according to a 2015 analysis by Montana State and Federal Reserve researchers.
The students went on to take more credits and earn better grades the following semester, the study found. The same research team found in a forthcoming study that students who received the letters were 2 percentage points more likely to switch to a major associated with higher-paying jobs.
Students with lower grades tended to switch their majors to business, while students with higher grades tended to switch to majors in science, technology, engineering or math.
The federal government mandates that students undergo counseling twice, once before they receive loans and once after they leave the institution. (Most colleges provide this information online.) The Indiana and Nebraska laws don’t require colleges to add additional counseling, although many colleges already offer services similar to IU’s.
Students Who Borrow Too Little
Yet student loan letters can also have a downside. They can deter students from taking out loans they really need to finance their education.
“It’s just a really complex issue,†said Robert Kelchen, an assistant professor at Seton Hall University who studies student debt. “The policy discussion is that students need to borrow less. And the reality is that some students may be able to borrow less, but some may need to borrow more.â€
Students may choose to work their way through college to graduate debt-free. But by working rather than studying, they may find it harder to graduate on time — or to graduate at all.
“The one thing we don’t want is students who are so stressed about their finances they can’t focus on their academics,†Schuman said.
Whether a student is borrowing too much or too little depends on a range of factors, from family wealth to the chosen degree and whether the student graduates, said Kelly of the American Enterprise Institute. “Someone who borrows the maximum amount for a solid program at a community college or a four-year college and finishes — it’s hard to say that they overborrowed,†he said.
Schuman said he has had to tell students that debt isn’t necessarily a bad thing, particularly when they’re working toward a degree that will lead to a high-paying job. He recently talked to a chemical engineering major at another institution who had about $10,000 in debt and was scared it was too much. “She was going to be fine!†he said.
Comprehensive Mental Health Legislation Passes House FloorÂ
(WASHINGTON, D.C.) – On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passedH.R. 2646, the Helping Families in Mental Health Crisis Act, a comprehensive overhaul of the nation’s mental health treatment system.
Eighth District Congressman Larry Bucshon, M.D. released the following statement after voting to pass H.R. 2646: “Our mental health system is broken and ineffective. Patients and their families are being left behind as they struggle to find help,â€Â said Bucshon. “Every American deserves the opportunity to live out his life and pursue his potential with hope and dignity. This landmark legislation helps make sure that patients with mental illness have access to the treatment they need when they need it. It reforms the delivery of care by focusing on evidence-based treatment and retailoring mental health programs and resources. As a physician, I’m proud of our work to pass this well-crafted legislation that will bring relief to families and will continue my work to make sure every American has access to quality, affordable healthcare.â€Â H.R. 2646 previously passed unanimously out of the House Energy and Commerce Committee in June with the support of Bucshon. |
St. Mary’s Hospital for Women & Children Births Records
Courtney and Matthew Marx, Haubstadt, Ind., Daughter, Emily Sue, Jun. 26
Heather and Ian Towns, Evansville, Daughter, Arya Roxanna, Jun. 26
Samantha and Michael Chappell, Princeton, Ind., Son, Braden Lee, Jun. 27
Michelle and Dusten Brown, McLeansboro, Ill., Daughter, Avery Grace, Jun. 27
Merry and Paul Neyenhaus Jr., Dale, Ind., Son, Westin Urban, Jun. 27
Briana and Chadd Huffman, Newburgh, Ind., Daughter, Bryleigh Taylor, Jun. 27
Aimee and Scott Ames, Newburgh, Ind., Son, Karter Matthias, Jun. 27
Erin and David Cates, Evansville, Daughter, Bradlee Rose, Jun. 28
Jessica Tucker, Evansville, Daughter, Harmony Nevaeh, Jun. 28
Holly and Jacob Pendleton, Evansville, Son, Robert Warren, Jun. 28
Tiah Conklin, Evansville, Daughter, Albany Starr, Jun. 28
Dorothy Burch and Bobby Courtney, Evansville, Daughter, Myrah Jay, Jun. 28
Amy and Bill West, Albion, Ill, Daughter, Bentley Maye, Jun. 29
Kristen and Jacob Hildenbrand, Evansville, Son, Dawson Michael, Jun. 29
Jaclyn and Gage Grogan, Evansville, Daughter, Lorna Elaine, Jun. 29
Latasha and Michael Biggs II, Henderson, Ky., Daughter, Claire Lillian, Jun. 29
Ambre and Anthony Kissel, Newburgh, Ind., Son, Laithan Anthony, Jun. 29
Ambre and Anthony Kissel, Newburgh, Ind., Daughter, Makenna Jo, Jun. 29
Keri Maddox and Erik Summitt, Haubstadt, Ind., Son, Osborne Reed, Jun. 29
Jessalyn and Kevin Jacks, Evansville, Daughter, Sophia Grace, Jun. 30
Jasmine Jones and Ras’Shan Johnson, Evansville, Daughter, Ra’Shiaana Diane Marie, Jun. 30
Sarah and Matt Latham, Newburgh, Ind., Daughter, Emily Marie, Jun. 30
Lacey McDonald, Evansville, Son, Napharoah Adam, Jun. 30
Laurie Schaefer and Blake Rhodes, Evansville, Son, Kayson Andru, Jun. 30
Shannon and Jonathan Eickhoff, Evansville, Son, Nolan Fredrick, Jul. 1
Cassandra and Edwin David, Newburgh, Ind., Son, Griffin Kenneth, Jul. 1
Carneluia Fields, Evansville, Son, Prince Glad’Ameris La’Troy, Jul. 1
Vanderburgh County Democratic Party Calendar of Events 7/6/2016
Friday, July 15th |
Fundraiser | TBD | Red’s Day at the Races Fundraiser for Steve Lockyear
|
Tuesday, July 19th |
Fundraiser | 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM | Zachary Heronemus for County Clerk Fundraiser
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Tuesday, July 26th |
Fundraiser | 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Steve Melcher for County Commissioner Fundraiser
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Wednesday, July 27th |
Meeting | 6:00 PM | Vanderburgh County Democrat Club Meeting
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Wednesday, August 3rd |
Fundraiser | 5:00 PM – 7:00 PM | Missy Mosby’s Annual 39th Birthday Party
|
Thursday, August 4th |
JJ Dinner | 5:00 PM | Vanderburgh County Jefferson-Jackson Dinner
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Wednesday, August 31st |
Meeting | 6:00 PM | Vanderburgh County Democrat Club Meeting
|
Friday, September 9th |
Golf Scramble | 1:00 PM Shotgun Start |
2016 Labor Temple Golf Scramble
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Saturday, September 10th |
Fundraiser | TBA | Rick Riney for Perry Township Trustee Annual Fish Fry
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Wednesday, September 28th |
Meeting | 6:00 PM | Vanderburgh County Democrat Club Meeting
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Wednesday, October 26th |
Meeting | 6:00 PM | Vanderburgh County Democrat Club Meeting
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Wednesday, November 30th |
Meeting | 6:00 PM | Vanderburgh County Democrat Club Meeting
|
USI Women’s Soccer Reveals 2016 Schedule
Screaming Eagles host invitational to kick-off season
The University of Southern Indiana women’s soccer team kicks-off the 2016 campaign hosting the Dunn Hospitality Invitational over the September 2 and September over the Labor Day weekend. The invitational begins an 18-game schedule that includes 10 home games.
The invitational, which includes USI, Kentucky Wesleyan College, University of Illinois Springfield, and the University of Findlay, starts a five-game homestand to start the fall for the Screaming Eagles. Following the invitational games against Findlay September 2 and Kentucky Wesleyan September 4, USI hosts Oakland City University September 7 before opening Great Lakes Valley Conference action against the University of Missouri-St. Louis September 9.
On the road, the Eagles will face defending GLVC champion and NCAA II Tournament qualifier Truman State University September 18, in addition to NCAA II Tournament qualifiers Quincy University September 16 and the University Indianapolis October 2.
USI enters 2016 under the direction of Eric Schoenstein, who took over as head coach in February. The Eagles return their top scorer from last year in sophomore forward Ryley Hancock (Evansville, Indiana), who had nine points on two goals and a team-high five assists.
Adopt A Pet
 Chikita is a 9-month-old female Chihuahua. She is pretty terrified of just about everything at the shelter. She will need a child-free home with someone who’s able to spend lots of cuddle time with her. Take Chikita home spayed, microchipped, and vaccinated for only $120! Call (812) 426-2563 or visit www.vhslifesaver.org for adoption details!