IS IT TRUE? June 24, 2011
IS IT TRUE that one can do a little searching around on the internet and learn many things about specific industries in nearly any market that one can define?…that Mole #1 was curious yesterday about just what the exact occupancy numbers and average daily rates are with respect to lodging in Evansville, Indiana?…that in 2008, 2009, 2010, and thus far in 2011 that the average occupancy in better hotels in Evansville has been 57.4%, 58.0%, 59.4%, and 58.3% respectively?…that adding inventory to a market that is predictable and mature with a 3 year trailing average of 58.3% and projecting an occupancy rate 17% higher than the three year trailing average would need to make a very compelling argument?…that one case where that has been true in Louisville with the 21C Museum Place Hotel?…that 21C is unique, is ranked as the top hotel in the United States, and is usually booked in a market where 3-Star conventional hotels are routinely occupied and priced just like the Evansville market?…that breaking from the average pack is only done by being much different and better than the pack?
IS IT TRUE that another internet search was done to figure out what the average daily rates have been for lodging in the Evansville market?…that in 2008, 2009, 2010, and thus far in 2011 that the average daily rate in better hotels in Evansville has been $75.48, $75.01, $75.57, and $80.68 respectively? …that adding inventory to a market that is predictable and mature with a 3 year trailing average of $75.37 with a total variance of only 56 cents and projecting an average price that is 67% higher than the three year trailing average would need to make a very compelling argument?…that things like this have been known to happen but that to do so that a 67% realizable difference in value will have to be sold to prospective customers?
IS IT TRUE that these statistics were compiled from 22 of the better hotels in Evansville with the smallest having 50 rooms and the largest having 250 rooms?…that there are no so called flop houses or rent by the hour hotels in the control group?…that these numbers by virtue of their repeatability and predictability are very good indicators of what one can expect in the Evansville lodging market?…that the only way to really break from the pack in any market of any industry is to be different and to deliver the value day in and day out that will command higher prices and elevated demand?
IS IT TRUE that last night at the ROMP Music Festival in Yellow Creek Park in Owensboro that Steve Martin and his band did indeed play “the Atheist Song†that was posted on the City County Observer yesterday?…that this song is basically about the fact that faiths all have beautiful music and art and that atheists do not have a hymnal?…that the song was a mix of humor and bluegrass music and that it was very well received?…that the concert last night is part of a 3 day bluegrass music festival that is being put on by the International Bluegrass Music Museum that is located in Owensboro?…that the cost to attend is $25 per person per day?…that at mid day yesterday that over 10,000 wrist bands had already been sold?…that this festival and the museum that is holding it are breaking from the pack and doing something that is much different and to their target market much better than the pack?…that we predict continued success for the ROMP bluegrass music festival and any other thing at all that separates itself from mediocrity?
CCO: “High potency journalistic!……..gumshoe/mediocre NOT!”
Priceline only list 3 hotels: Drury Inn & Suites (East), Hilton Garden Inn (East), and Holiday Inn (Airport) listed as 3-Star. Trip Advisor has the same 3 plus Residence Inn (East). Are there other hotels that are considered 3-Star that can compare somewhat apples to apples with the new downtown hotel if/when it is ever built? Since you used 22 hotels, I’m sure that the other 18 or 19 less-than-3-star hotels helped to lower these averages to some degree. I’ll also point out that none of these 4 3-Star hotels are downtown next to the new Arena and the Center. I’m not sure how the Hotel Le Merigot is rated, but it goes for around $169 for it’s relatively small number of rooms. Being a non-gambler if I wanted to stay downtown for a Arena/Center event or for business, I would not want to stay with the chain-smoking gamblers at Aztar. With no other choices, I would stay at the new hotel even if it was a little above average market price. If price was my number one concern, I probably wouldn’t consider downtown in the first place.
The Aztar properties are hard to deal with since there is so much comping going on. Both were in the survey and we are sure that the reported rates are accurate but are not sure if the occupancy reflects sold rooms only or includes rooms that are comped. The oldest was 1973 and the newest was 2008. Most of the properties are built in the mid to late 90’s. Le Merigot is definitely the high end property but the ones you list are all included. The Holiday Inn Airport was just rebranded again. Several of the older ones including the oldest have been re-branded and upgraded over time. The list that I have does not have star rankings. I am sure that LeMerigot and Aztar are both 3 Stars. I am not sure about things like Holiday Inn Express that is quite nice but may only be 2 stars.
We simply presented the averages for what they are. As for a 3-Star downtown it will command slightly above average prices but unless it is offering a real different experience any assumptions for occupancy above or below average raise eyebrows.
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