The Rasmussen Tracking poll today shows President Obama trailing Mitt Romney by 49% – 47% while Gallup’s Tracking poll that just shifted to likely voters from registered voters shows Mitt Romney leading the Obama campaign by 51% -46%.
The average of these two polls is now showing the Romney/Ryan campaign with 50.0% and the Obama/Biden at 46.5%. The Romney campaign has maintained a lead that is both above 50% and larger than the margin of error of the polls for 12 days now.
Real Clear Politics today has 10 polls, 4 of which are comprised completely of data taken after the last debate which indicate an overall lead for Romney of 0.8%. When the 4 post debates polls are averaged Governor Romney leads by a full 1.8%
Polls now indicate that only between 3% and 5% of those polled have not expressed an opinion putting the undecideds in a position to choose the next President but less so than before. Polls consistently give 2% of the vote to other candidates lead by Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate for President.
Nearly 60% of the those polled think the country is on the wrong track while under 40% think we are on the right track.
President Obama still enjoys an approval rating of just under 50% matching the disapproval rating showing the country as evenly polarized as possible.
The once wide likability margin that the President once had over Mitt Romney has been erased in post debate polling with both candidates being seen as equally favorable at just over 50%.
In electoral news the “no toss up” score at 281 – 257 in favor of President Obama. The obvious meaning here is that Ohio which electionprojection.com has favoring President Obama by a thin 1.1% after holding a near double digit lead before the debates holds the most defined key to the White House. Given the state of the race today whoever wins Ohio wins the Presidency. Today Rasmussen gives Romney a 2% lead in Ohio and a statewide newspaper consortium calls the race even at 49% each.
Not buying it. I have had these pollsters call me before. When asked who I would vote for President and I responded with a name that was not on their list, they put me down as “Undecided”. Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate should be included in these polls since he too is on the ballot in all 50 states. If Abe Lincoln were to run today, he would have no chance in hell of getting elected. As he was with the “New” republican party.
How can ANYONE have faith in a duopoly system that controls your choices to the lesser of two evils? Our country is in the position it is in because of BOTH the Republicans and the Democrats together. When we elect a Democrat and get Democrat policies, they are not changed when the Republican gets in office next. Instead he continues with the old Democratic ways and just adds his Republicans ways to that. Further compiling the problems.
We should be sending people to Washington to undue what has been done rather than trying to “fix” the unfixable policies that have been passed in the past. The “fixes” usually translate to mean more of the same old stuff and more of it.
Real change is when you put someone in office who doesn’t stand a chance of winning because he is not a part of the system already in place. The day that happens will be the day in which we see real policy changes.
Just Saying
We expect that of the 6% – 8% reported as undecideds that something like half may be in your category of supporting Johnson. That being the case the true undecideds are most likely under 5%.
Rasmussen shows 3% undecided, not your percentages. You have doubled what Rasmussen reports, and you fail to include the 2% that Rasmussen attributes for other candidates (which is the point of Just Saying)
I would not be surprised if Gary Johnson cracks 10% in a few States.
The only poll that counts is the one on election day, especially if the New Black Panther Party is involved (i.e., the 2008 election!)
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/greed-and-debt-the-true-story-of-mitt-romney-and-bain-capital-20120829
It would be interesting to see a poll taken of government employees, particulary HUD and EPA. Hud has already gone in stealth mode. The word is that if Romney wins the election most employees will lose their jobs.
Layoffs at HUD and the EPA??? Now that is finally a reason to vote for Romney if he will follow through with that.
Well, you behaved as expected. For the last several days (especially before the debate) you have NOT run anything showing the latest polling. I have watched as you ignored all the results as Obama was widening a lead. But after his debate performance I knew it was a matter of time before you started touting how Mittens was closing the gap.
Also, taking an “average” of only two polls is not statistically valid. Simple mathematics.
Care to explain why you did not post all the results when Obama was increasing his lead, but now you start touting the Romney bounce? Besides, it is a matter of time before Mittens makes another gaffe and screws himself up.
You need to do a better job of reporting about Rasmussen. I just looked at their website seconds ago, and it reports as follows:
“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.”
Your article is misleading or just inaccurate.
Article is dated on October 7th, was compiled from October 7th data and programmed to post this morning. I just checked Rasmussen for this morning and you are correct for October 8th. If we do an October 8th version we will use it. Gallup will not be released for today until 1:30 EST. This article given the disclosed date is factual and accurate. Better watch better with regards to truth there truthsquad.
One more thing, we suspended posting poll results until both tracking polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) published data that was all taken post debate. Gallup yesterday suspended their 7 day tracking report to show the magnitude of the change the debates made. I do not recall them ever doing that before.
Fools’ names, like fools’ faces, often appear in public places. “Just Saying” can “not buy it” or go on a buying frenzy if so inclined. No one knows what the outcome will be until all of the votes have been counted, especially the fraudulently cast votes for his Messiah.
Who are the fools voting for the Liar, murderer Obama? Libya, Fast & Furious, Muslim Brotherhood rise to unprecedented power, 100% real inflation on everyday items like gas and milk since Obama took office, Green Energy investment failures in the billions, bailouts of Wall Street!!, buyout of GM with inmate/labor unions that caused the auto crisis in charge. FU Obama supporters!!!
Love that comment Marc!!!! Everyone out there who has not yet seen the documentary 2016 Go rent it from Red Box for a buck well worth the dollar to educate yourself to what Obama’s real agenda is!!!
You re-posting the same comments over and over is pitiful. Can you not put the silly polls you cite in new articles?
As for your polls, maybe you should digest this
http://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009
You should post info from FiveThirtyEight.com (if you have the guts), which shows that as of today Obama has a 80.1% chance of winning in November, compared to a poor ranking of 19.9% for Romney. When they plot the election day of November 6 Obama has a 74.6% chance of winning in November, compared to only 25.4% for Romney.
You have spent a lot of time defending Rasmussen and Gallup, but they are nowhere near the accuracy of FiveThirtyEight.com. He has trounced everyone since he started in 2008.
“The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.
Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points.”
It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election.
My offer of a bet is still on the table. As for 538 and Mr. Silver he did well on his first foray into the political prediction world but only has one contest under his belt. Gallup is the poll with a winning record since at least 1980 and Rasmussen has predicted well in the last two after a debut not doing so well. Mr. Silver is getting lots of grief for his turnout assumptions that are based even more democratic than the 2008 elections. If he is right I shall tip my hat but he is alone in expecting what his turnout profile is. So there are two new polls from Ohio. One has Romney +2 and the other is a tie after and entire campaign of Obama leading. Why would that not qualify as a toss up? Most definitions of toss up are within the margin of error which Ohio clearly is. By the way, why does RCP exclude Silver’s 538 poll? They seem to include every other local dog and pony poll that anyone publishes.
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