Ellis Park Friday, July 8 – Race Day 4 Race by Race Analysis
posted by “Backside Lil”
FIRST – HANG ON ANNIE hasn’t been on the turf yet but improved her last three starts and was runner-up barely beaten for $10,000 last race at Churchill. She’s been or just off the lead three of her last four races and not much other speed in here; repeat of her last wins this. TEMPERATURE RISING might like the change of scenery where she was running mid-pack at what was probably similar level to today’s field; best race of the year was two starts back on the turf. STARSHIP ADVENTURE makes her first start. She was training this spring at Gulfstream but shows up here for trainer Don Hunt who won 3-4 races at Ellis last summer with these previously Florida-based Starship horses.
Selections 7-9-6-4
SECOND – Three of the top contenders in the race exit the same last start at Churchill on June 16, LEITRIM was 2nd that day, made the lead turning for home and caught late. The turnback from mile to 7/8th today should help him, runner-up again at that distance two starts back against much tougher field. Pace setup should have him just off the early lead and getting first jump turning for home. He was a couple lengths ahead of FUNNY QUESTIONS and TWENTY GAUGE in the June 16 race. FUNNY QUESTIONS has been close in four of his five starts, has had Joe Rocco aboard for his best races and like him a little better than TWENTY GAUGE who has had fourteen tries to break the maiden. FROST OR FRIPPERY has been 3rd four times in his five races, best races were on the lead but think he comes up short again today.
Selections 2-7-6-5
THIRD – PINATA CAT has a lot of gaps between recent starts but her best race was sprinting on turf, beaten just a head by filly that came back to win next start. Her only start at Churchill she was close early and faded late going a mile. Two previous times she ran after short layoffs were her best races and repeat of the Fair Grounds race should get it done here. Homebred SUMMERTIME SONNET makes her first start for trainer Steve Margolis who wins about 12% with debut runners; filly has exceptional grass breeding by stallion Shakespeare and nice 1â„2 work last week. RUDY RUMBA returns to the turf after three dirt races that were pretty good, 3rd and 4th against maiden claimers. QUIET SHORE would be longshot stab in here, claimed out of her first race for $10,000 where she made the lead and tired late going a mile; cuts back to sprint today, big class jump, but she adds Lasix.
Selections 9-1-10-8
FOURTH – WINDSURFER ran a very nice race six weeks ago at Churchill, his first start of the year. He was 2nd beaten just a head and 3rd place finisher already came back to win his next start. He’s versatile enough to run longer but think today’s 3â„4 mile suits him best and last win was here last summer. FAVORITE COACH warrants a lot of respect, off since April, he’s won three of four starts this year all at basically same class level as today. Should be ready after the short rest, shows six morning works but not crazy about the rail post position. FLEET GOLD DIGGER has been unlucky last two races, beaten a head and neck both times at Churchill. He’s been a popular horse to claim changing hands five times in last eight starts and maintained good form with all the changes but might be better going just a little longer. GROUND FORCE won four in a row last fall, all at today’s distance; two recent starts in Kentucky were against much tougher fields.
Selections 5-1-6-2
FIFTH – Six of the ten 2-year olds are making their first start. Of the first timers, LEAD THE CHARGE shows the best works, his last four 1â„2 mile breezes should have him ready for trainer Brad Cox who has well above average success with debut runners and even higher when making first start at a mile. CONQUEST CROWN ME but top sire Kitten’s Joy comes from Mark Casse barn and they are also excellent with 2-year olds and turf maidens. Of the four in the field that have run already, HONOR THY FATHER ran an even race sprinting on the dirt first time out; $250,000 yearling purchase from really good family should benefit from the stretchout in distance.
Selections 8-1-6-4
SIXTH – OLD MOUNTAIN LANE takes a big class drop here from $15-20,000 range to $5000. He beat half the field last time out only poor effort this year when going long was on a sloppy track. His win at Oaklawn was wire- to-wire going today’s mile and not much other early speed in here should give him every chance from up front. Arkansas-bred HUNTER HENRY hasn’t raced since Oaklawn but won after a layoff and shows nice local 5/8th mile work last week to prep for this. JOURNEY PROUD returns after a year off. 4-year old gelding shows a good work pattern here at Ellis over the couple months and only win was going a mile, just seems a lot to ask first time out even with the class drop from level he was racing at last year. WALKERS SENTRY should be prominent early stretching out from shorter sprints; in the money finishes last four races but more likely for minor piece.
Selections 3-6-5-1
SEVENTH – Pace advantage should belong to SKY HERO making just second start since last summer. He made the lead and was just beaten couple lengths at Keeneland. He’s been gelded and working very well since that race. MOTIVATIONAL comes in off a 5th place finish in a very tough second level allowance at Churchill. The winner Generous Kitten is stakes quality horse and runner up that day already won his next start. Charlie Lopresti trained gelding broke his maiden here last summer at today’s nine furlongs; needs a good trip comes from far back. Plenty of other contenders as you would expect for this allowance level. Best of rest looks like KING PTOLEMY, disappointing in last try when sent off at 3/1 after winning an ‘off-the-turf’ at Churchill. Corey Lanerie was up for that win and back on today.
Selections 2-6-7-1
EIGHTH – STORMIN JORJA has run better than most of the field on the grass and one of only two here with a win at the distance on turf. Claimed two starts back she comes in today off a close up 2nd in the slop at Churchill. Her main threat looks like DISONES PRETTY who was a popular 6/5 winner leading all the way when dropped first time to this claiming level. She’s also won on the grass and in the money over half her turf tries. JEANINES PRIDE has been no worse than 3rd in her five starts this year and lone turf start was a good 3rd here last summer but she finished back of JORJA last race and looks a couple lengths behind the top pair. HERE COMES CHLOE drops in class for first time to this level but last two races at Arlington not encouraging.
Selections 9-10-2-4
