Unskewed Polls Explanation
To assess claims of bias in many of the 2012 polls, I have come up with these objective measurements. What follows are three models that adjust polls according to the partisan turnout of the past two elections. One adjusts the polls according to the turnout in President Obama’s election in 2008. The second uses the turnout in 2004 to calculate the adjustments. And the third averages the turnout of the previous two elections.
Since these calculations depend on the percentage of Democrats, Republicans and Independents in each survey, only polls for which partisan sampling is available are included. The three different models are provided to give readers the opportunity to make their own conclusions about the level of bias, if any, that exists in the polls of the 2012 presidential election cycle.
This project uses up to the four most recent polls for each of ten battleground states. These states are CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI.
*Computed from polls included on this page only. Values do not necessarily reflect EP’s official projections.
Last updated on Saturday, November 3, 2012
Barack Obama Mitt Romney Margin
Current Electoral Votes*:
2008 Turnout: Obama 303 Romney 235
2004 Turnout: Romney 321 Obama 217
Average (’04 & ’08) Turnout: Romney 285 Obama 253
Full details on the following link by poll and by state:
http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/unskewedpollsummary12.php
