Countdown to the Election: “Don’t Count Your Chickens Til They’re Hatched”

By Johnny Kincaid of City-County Observer

OCTOBER 29, 2024

In the remaining days until election day, the City-County Observer provides perspectives on the election. Today we look at the race for governor.

Right after the primary in May, most Hoosiers would have likely bet with absolute certainty that Mike Braun would easily stroll into the governor’s office. Braun came through a six-way battle in the primary in which all of the other GOP gubernatorial candidates piled on him. But, in the red state of Indiana, nobody thought that the race in the general election could be close.

The road from Jasper to Indianapolis was under construction, and the Braun campaign hit a few potholes

Pothole number one came at the Indiana GOP convention when convention delegates opted not to confirm Julie McGuire,  Braun’s pick for running mate. Instead, the convention attendees voted for Micah Beckwith as the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor. Making the blow even worse was the fact that Braun called his friend Donald Trump to make a last-minute endorsement for McGuire.

The next big bump in the road came when Braun named a southern Indiana county chairperson to become the new chair of the state Republican Party, but party leaders had other plans, and they decided that Randy Head would fill the seat of state chair.

To his credit, Braun decided to spend time with his young running mate to bring the team together and get them on the same page. But Democrats started labeling the Braun-Beckwith team “dangerous” and “extreme.” Every effort was made to drive a wedge between the GOP ticket.

Jennifer McCormick has managed to shape the campaign narrative. Her key issue reflects a boldness in a red state with a significant “Right to Life”presence. McCormick believes that the abortion issue will determine the outcome of this race.

There are signs that the Democratic strategy has had some impact. The tone of Braun’s TV campaign has shifted from the upbeat, friendly, Mayberry feel to ads that define McCormick in negative terms. When leading candidates change their tone in this way, it indicates that the race is tightening. Some polls have shown the race getting as close as two points difference between Braun and McCormick, with Braun’s numbers remaining in the mid-40s. The Libertarian candidate, Donald Rainwater is polling at around 10%.

While Braun shows confidence in how he conducts himself, his staff has projected less confidence behind the scenes. When Braun keynoted at the City-County Observer Awards in September, a staffer rejected several people from introducing the Senator or moderating the question and answer session and wanted to prescreen all of the questions. He stated that he wanted to prevent a moment like the one that torpedoed Richard Murdock and ended his senate campaign. It was as if he wanted to control our event and we wouldn’t allow it.

From sure thing to probable

Politico recently changed the status of the Indiana governor’s race. It’s still likely Republican, but that’s a downgrade from being a sure thing. The Democratic Governor’s Association has poured $1.1 million into the McCormick campaign. A million dollars in funding indicates that the Democrats believe that it is possible to pull off an upset. In the meantime, the Republican Governors Association has given a million dollars to the Braun campaign.

Now, Braun’s campaign has taken their eyes off of the ball and has launched a campaign attacking Libertarian candidate Donald Rainwater. This move is reminiscent of the Evansville mayoral race when the well-funded Republican Natalie Rascher attacked Libertarian Michael Daugherty instead of Democrat Stephanie Terry. In both the mayoral race and the governor’s campaign, the Republicans allowed the person with 10% of the vote to distract them from the person who could gather enough votes to defeat them.

The perfect storm

The changing odds in the gubernatorial campaign result from multiple factors creating the perfect storm, starting with the tough primary, intra-party power struggles, and the abortion issue pushed to the forefront. The McCormick campaign has effectively used Braun’s and Beckwith’s differences to create a wedge between them. The smart Republican action would have been to have Braun and his running mate together at all times, showing unity and tempering comments from Beckwith.

In May, the GOP started counting its chickens long before they were hatched. The GOP will maintain its supermajority in the state legislature and likely keep the governor’s office in Republican hands.

Since the race is not as certain as it once was, the only answer is to ensure that we all cast our ballots, whether for Braun or McCormick.