Analysis: Democrats have big legislative hole to climb out of

By Lesley Weidenbener
TheStatehouseFile.com
INDIANAPOLIS – So what’s the importance of a few more legislative seats when you already have a supermajority?

When Republicans added two more seats to their already huge majority in the House last Tuesday and three more to their huge majority in the Senate, they didn’t gain any real advantage in passing bills or supporting the GOP governor’s agenda.

They already had those tasks well in hand.

Instead the larger majorities simply make it tougher for Democrats to regain a foothold in either chamber. Republicans all but ensured it will take years for Democrats to regain real clout – let alone a majority – in the House or Senate, unless Republicans just absolutely outrage voters.

Already, the supermajorities mean that Republicans can do business without Democrats. That’s because Republicans have enough members in both chambers to have a quorum even if no Democrats show up.

That was true after the 2012 election in the House and has been true for several years in the Senate. Democrats had hoped to pick up a few seats – particularly in the House – to at least eliminate those supermajorities. Instead, the GOP only added to their margins.

Republicans now control the House 71-29 and the Senate 40-10. That’s right. Three out of every four Indiana Senate districts are represented by Republicans. And there are more Republicans in the 50-member Senate than there are Democrats in the entire General Assembly.

House Minority Leader Scott Pelath, D-Michigan City, said the numbers are a disappointment. He and his leadership team had hoped to start eating away at the GOP majority in the 2014 election. It’s a job he acknowledges will take time, which means every single election is important.

This year, Democrats took a step back, he acknowledged, despite what he said were good candidates and good organization. But Pelath said given the “carnage” for Democrats nationwide, it’s the results in Indiana may not have been so bad.

That’s certainly true. Democrats lost control of the U.S. Senate while Republicans added to their majority in the House. The GOP picked up three more governor’s seats and gained control of eight more legislative chambers.

Of course, 2016 could be much different. There will be a presidential race on the ticket. And a governor’s race in Indiana. And those are types of races that bring out more voters. Pelath said the 2016 will provide “an entirely different universe of voters.”

But now, Democrats have an even bigger hole from which to climb. They need to win back five seats simply to end the GOP supermajority in the House and seven seats to prevent a quorum in the Senate. That’s particularly tough since Republicans drew the currently legislative district maps.

And speaking of those maps. Unless Democrats manage to win 22 seats in the House in the next six years and 16 seats in the Senate, the Republicans will draw those maps again in 2021, which would likely wipe out any Democratic gains.

It’s not impossible to imagine that Democrats could make a comeback in the House. They controlled the chamber back in 2010. It’s been much longer since Democrats had a majority in the Senate.

But House Speaker Brian Bosma, R-Indianapolis, reminded his caucus on Wednesday that anything can happen. He said that 1905, Republicans held an 85-15 majority in the House. But by 1913, politics shifted and Democrats held a 95-5 advantage.

“I don’t know what happened in those seven years,” Bosma said. “But I’ve cautioned our team we don’t want it to happen again.”

Lesley Weidenbener is executive editor of TheStatehouseFile.com, a news website powered by Franklin College journalism students.