It was a lovely September morning in Indianapolis in 2018. We had been living in our new townhouse downtown for about a year, relocating from a house just two blocks up the street. I was still a consultant back then and this was still my offseason. So, I had casually risen and slow-walked my way through my morning routine, making my way to the shower around 10:30 am. When I got out, the crime rate in my house had skyrocketed.
A burglar was downstairs stealing my laptop, backpack and wallet.
Last week, the FBI released its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) summary for 2024. It’s an annual report commonly used to understand the “crime rate.” The good news in this report, as has been the trend for the last three decades, is that crime in America continues to slow.
However, much of America doesn’t seem to know it or doesn’t want to admit it.
Feeling like crime is on the rise justifies doing dramatic things like mobilizing the military in cities like Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. when there is no actual justification. It’s not really about actual crime. It’s the crime drama that is in play here.
It would be convenient to give credit to some politician, political party, or civic group for the sharp declines in violent and property crimes since the early 90s But the reduction is too big and has been trending for too many political cycles to support such a claim. Besides, in 2025, much of the public would rather pretend that crime, in general, is rampant, a scourge that must be given the highest priority to eradicate. Yes, it is my belief that much of America would actually prefer to believe that crime is a growing problem, not a shrinking one.
Pew Research published an update to its extensive study on the issue last year. The most shocking part of the study is how disconnected the public’s perception is from the reality of actual crime rates. For example, between 1993 and 2022, violent crime has decreased by 49%. By half! But when asked, the perception that crime is up nationally “in the last year” has continued to rise from 47% in 2000, to 77% in 2023.
As crime rates have shrunk, the perception of its growth has risen. And almost as sharply. Why is that? One contributing factor is how crime is reported.
My wife is a local TV news junkie, even when we travel. And in America, the most reliable part of the local news in every locality is the morning crime report. The volume of coverage there certainly hasn’t decreased. Nationally, it seems what the coverage gives up in terms of the volume of crimes covered, it makes up for by overreporting on crimes it finds particularly interesting. Combine these trends together, and it becomes perfectly understandable for those who are casually paying attention to believe crime is worsening.
One other important factor is that gun deaths have continued to rise. Pew has excellent data in this arena as well, with its most recent update published on March 5th. Murder-by-gun rates declined sharply between 1993 and 2000 but have steadily risen since then. And while not considered within crime data, suicide by gun has steadily risen with no reprieve since 1968.
It’s awful being a crime victim, even for someone like me who occasionally writes about crime and who once worked within the criminal justice system.
There actually is little disagreement on what is criminal and what is not. The community already agrees that burglary, for example, is a crime. Laws have been created to punish those committing it, and in theory, to prevent it or reduce it from happening. I didn’t have to be the first to suggest that policies be created to deal with the man who burglarized my home. The community already agreed, and our criminal justice system was already versed in dealing with such things.
But to me, on that day, crime was out of control in Indianapolis. Something extreme needed to be done and now!
Not really. This high profile heist could have been prevented had I simply locked my back door. I know this because a neighbor saw the burglar try to enter three of my neighbors’ back doors before he found mine open. So, while at the time I was enraged that my home had been violated, I wasn’t exactly living in fear, or even in caution.
Much to my wife’s continued frustration, I still don’t. I commonly forget to lock the door and sometimes have trouble even closing it all the way.
Maybe it’s because I read Pew Research and the UCR more often than I watch the morning news.
Michael Leppert is an author, educator and a communication consultant in Indianapolis. He writes about government, politics and culture at MichaelLeppert.com. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Indiana Citizen or any other affiliated organization.
