For Your Polling Pleasure

One thing I’ve been doing for the past few years is polling. I use a company called ARW Strategies that is out of the Chicago suburbs. Owner Andrew Weissert has polled past governor and U.S. Senate races. Heck, I even had him poll the mayor’s race for me in 2023, the general, not the primary, just in case you were wondering. So, as tradition dictates, here we go a polling.

First, let’s get some survey stuff out of the way. We polled 600 likely voters statewide, Sept. 24-26, and the poll had a margin of error of four percent.   And remember, polls are not predictions; they are snapshots of time. We asked about several statewide races and a couple of issues as well. In the presidential race, Donald Trump beats Kamala Harris—55-39. Big shocker. In the race for the U.S. Senate, brace yourself, Jim Banks is at 49%, and Dr. Valarie McCray is at 35. Andy Horning was at 2.6%. The remaining 13 percent were undecided. And in the race for Attorney General, Todd Rokita is beating Destiny Wells, 51-36.

And then there was the governor’s race.

Our poll showed Mike Braun at 44, Jennifer McCormick at 37, Don Rainwater at 9, and 10 percent were undecided.  While Braun had a seven-point lead over McCormick, which was the smallest of any Republican statewide candidate, he should not be in the mid-40s. Businessman, U.S. senator, you know the story. We’ve seen the commercials. If Braun is at 44% with a month to go before Election Day. He may cross the finish line, beaten and bruised, but forget about a mandate.

And our polls on the statewide races were consistent with other statewide public polls.

We also asked what Hoosiers thought of Gov. Eric Holcomb’s job performance as he leaves the office. The poll showed that 55% approved of the job Holcomb has done, while 35% disapproved. What’s interesting about that is that when asked if they thought the State of Indiana was on the right or wrong track, 42% said things were on the wrong track, while 37% said things were headed in the right direction.

We also surveyed Hoosiers’ thoughts on several issues. Abortion: 53% said it should be legal in all or most cases, 39% said it should be illegal in all or most cases. When asked what the big issue Indiana lawmakers should address in the next session was, it wasn’t property taxes. For all the shouting in the political peanut galleys these days, property taxes were fifth. First was inflation and rising prices: 23%. Jobs and the economy were second, at 13%. The border and immigration were at 12.6%. Followed by education at 12.1%. And bringing up the rear, property taxes at 9%. It didn’t even hit double digits.

A full 60% supported universal school vouchers, while 32% opposed them. When we asked about trust in government, the feds came in at only 32%, 57% trusted the state, and 65% trusted their locals. Trust with the courts was at 62%. And 59% said our politics has become too coarse and personal.

Of course, I had to ask the marijuana question. We didn’t ask about legalization for medicinal or recreational purposes because a clear majority of Hoosiers are in the plus column. We asked, “Have you ever tried it?” The results were 41% multiple times and 13% once. 40% didn’t know, and 5% were unsure. No offense, but if you don’t know whether you did or didn’t, you probably did and did it well.

So that’s all we have. I have to the folks who stepped up and donated or pledged to done to make this happen. Once again, polling is part art, part science. Polls are not predictions; they are snapshots in time. But if you put them together, you do get trends. And those trends will last right through Election Day.